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Market to remain under pressure, Nifty may find support around 14,800 levels: Experts

Nifty has short-term resistance at 15370-15400. A break above 15400 will mean a rally to 15700 the zone from where Nifty broke down. On the flip side, if the Nifty breaks below 15200 it can fall to 15000-14900. Expect volatility to be high, says Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst.

June 20, 2022 / 06:43 AM IST
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Indian markets ended lower for the second consecutive week on June 17 and also suffered biggest weekly losses since May 2020 as global inflation worries led to monetary policy tightening by the central banks. For the week, the BSE Sensex shed 2,943.02 points (5.41 percent) to close at 51,360.42, while the Nifty fell 908.3 points (5.6 percent) to end at 15,293.5.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | The S&P 500 and our banking index have officially entered the bear market territory and the fear witnessed this week is expected to continue. The movement of the dollar index, crude oil prices, and the evolving Covid situation in China and India will be closely watched. As there are no other major domestic or international macro events in the coming week, Indian indices are expected to be jittery, moving in tandem with in the global peers. Investors should therefore remain cautious and begin making small, selective investments in fundamentally superior companies that are available at reasonable valuations. Following weak global cues, Nifty 50 ended the week sharply lower and decisively broke below the critical support level of 15,700. While market sentiment is extremely bearish, the indices have become oversold in the near term. Even the major global indices are trading near the support of the falling channel. As a result, a short-covering bounce cannot be ruled out. We recommend that traders maintain a negative to neutral outlook in the coming week and use any bounce as an exit opportunity. The immediate support and resistance levels are now placed at 15,200 and 16,200 levels respectively.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | The S&P 500 and our banking index have officially entered the bear market territory and the fear witnessed this week is expected to continue. The movement of the dollar index, crude oil prices, and the evolving Covid situation in China and India will be watched closely. As there are no other major domestic or international macro events in the coming week, the Indian indices are expected to be jittery, moving in tandem with their global peers. Investors should therefore remain cautious and begin making small, selective investments in fundamentally superior companies that are available at reasonable valuations. While the market sentiment is extremely bearish, the indices have become oversold in the near term. Even the major global indices are trading near the support of the falling channel. As a result, a short-covering bounce cannot be ruled out. We recommend that traders maintain a negative to neutral outlook in the coming week and use any bounce as an exit opportunity. The immediate support and resistance levels are now placed at 15,200 and 16,200 levels respectively.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Going ahead, we expect market to remain under pressure with increasing fears of economic slowdown. Given the hawkish commentaries from Central banks and record high inflation, rate hike cycle is likely to continue over the next couple of months and would keep investors jittery. Traders should avoid long positions and maintain Sell on rise strategy.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | We expect the market to remain under pressure with increasing fears of economic slowdown. Given the hawkish commentaries from the central banks and record high inflation, the rate hike cycle is likely to continue over the next couple of months and would keep investors jittery. Traders should avoid long positions and maintain sell-on-rise strategy.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | Traders are advised to book profits on short positions and look for buy side trading opportunities from a one to two weeks perspective. The short term supports for Nifty are placed around 15000 and 14800 while the pullback move in Nifty could lead Nifty towards 15650 in the coming week. The Bank Nifty index has not breached the March swing lows although Nifty has done that. Also, some of the index heavyweights from the banking space are trading around the support zones. So in case of any pullback move, the Bank Nifty index could see a relative outperformance and take the leadership to pull the benchmark higher.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | Traders are advised to book profits on short positions and look for buy side trading opportunities from one to two weeks perspectives. Short-term supports for the Nifty are placed around 15,000 and 14,800, while the pullback move in the Nifty could lead the index towards 15,650 in the coming week. The Bank Nifty index has not breached the March swing lows although the Nifty has done that. Also, some of the index heavyweights from the banking space are trading around the support zones. So, in case of any pullback move, the Bank Nifty index could see a relative outperformance and take the leadership to pull the benchmark higher.
Palak Kothari, Research Associates at Choice Broking | On the Technical Front, The Nifty has been trading with Lower High & Lower low formation on weekly charts which suggest downside movement in the counter. Nifty has given a breakdown of horizontal line and trading below 200 DMA which adds weakness in the trend. Nifty has given closing below 100*200-Hourly Moving Averages which indicate it can show more downside in the counter. The momentum indicators Stochastic & MACD were trading with a negative crossover on a daily chart which suggested a southward journey in the counter. The Nifty may find support around 15000 levels while on the upside 15500 may act as an immediate hurdle. On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 32300 levels while resistance at 33800 levels. Overall, Nifty is looking weak on charts , breaching below 15000 can show more downside.
Palak Kothari, Research Associates at Choice Broking | On the technical front, The Nifty has been trading with lower high and lower low formation on weekly charts which suggest downside movement in the counter. The Nifty has given a breakdown of horizontal line and trading below 200 DMA which adds weakness in the trend. It has given closing below 100*200-Hourly Moving Averages which indicate it can show more downside in the counter. The momentum indicators Stochastic and MACD were trading with a negative crossover on a daily chart which suggested a southward journey in the counter. The Nifty may find support around 15000 levels while on the upside 15500 may act as an immediate hurdle. On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 32300 levels while resistance at 33800 levels. Overall, Nifty is looking weak on charts , breaching below 15000 can show more downside.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For the traders now, 15400 would act as a trend decider level and above the same, the Nifty could touch the level of 15600-15700. On the other hand, below 15400, the index could retest the level of 15200. Further down side may also continue which could drag the index till 15000. Meanwhile, after a long time, on weekly charts the Bank Nifty closed below the important support level of 33000. The structure suggests below 33000 it could slip up to 32000-31500.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For the traders now, 15400 would act as a trend decider level and above the same, the Nifty could touch the level of 15600-15700. On the other hand, below 15400, the index could retest the level of 15200. Further down side may also continue which could drag the index till 15000. Meanwhile, after a long time, on weekly charts the Bank Nifty closed below the important support level of 33000. The structure suggests below 33000 it could slip up to 32000-31500.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | In our sense, although we did not manage to catch the recent down move, it’s better not to get carried away in the challenging times. As far as supports are concerned, 15200 – 15000 are to be seen as immediate support and breach of the same, would certainly create some panic kind of situation in our markets. On the flip side, the markets would regain strength only after surpassing the key levels of 15700 – 15800 on a closing basis. Till then it's not advisable to carry aggressive longs overnight. Traders are advised to take one step at a time in the forthcoming week and should ideally look to lighten up positions during the day only. Since we are mirroring the global trends, markets can surprise us anytime in either direction.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | In our sense, although we did not manage to catch the recent down move, it’s better not to get carried away in the challenging times. As far as supports are concerned, 15200 – 15000 are to be seen as immediate support and breach of the same, would certainly create some panic kind of situation in our markets. On the flip side, the markets would regain strength only after surpassing the key levels of 15700 – 15800 on a closing basis. Till then it's not advisable to carry aggressive longs overnight. Traders are advised to take one step at a time in the forthcoming week and should ideally look to lighten up positions during the day only. Since we are mirroring the global trends, markets can surprise us anytime in either direction.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | Nifty has short-term resistance at 15370-15400. A break above 15400 will mean a rally to 15700 the zone from where Nifty broke down. On the flip side, if the Nifty breaks below 15200 it can fall to 15000-14900. Expect volatility to be high.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | The Nifty has a short-term resistance at 15370-15400. A break above 15400 will mean a rally to 15700 the zone from where Nifty broke down. On the flip side, if the Nifty breaks below 15200 it can fall to 15000-14900. Expect volatility to be high.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | In absence of any major domestic event, global cues will continue to dictate the trend. Among the events, the US Fed Chair’s speech and China’s decision regarding the loan prime rate will be in focus. Participants will also be eyeing the COVID cases trend and the progress of the monsoon. The aggressive stance of the US Fed has triggered the fear of recession, which is cascading to markets across the globe. However, easing of global energy supply could change the dynamics ahead. Amid all, participants should follow the trend, which is indicating more pain ahead. After the decisive breakdown of major support around 15,650, Nifty is now inching towards the 14,800-15,000 zone. In case of any rebound, the index would face stiff resistance around 15,550-15,700 levels. Investors, on the other hand, can selectively look for buying opportunities as several quality stocks are now available at a good bargain.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | In absence of any major domestic event, global cues will continue to dictate the trend. Among the events, the US Fed Chair’s speech and China’s decision regarding the loan prime rate will be in focus. Participants will also be eyeing the COVID cases trend and the progress of the monsoon. The aggressive stance of the US Fed has triggered the fear of recession, which is cascading to markets across the globe. However, easing of global energy supply could change the dynamics ahead. Amid all, participants should follow the trend, which is indicating more pain ahead. After the decisive breakdown of major support around 15,650, Nifty is now inching towards the 14,800-15,000 zone. In case of any rebound, the index would face stiff resistance around 15,550-15,700 levels. Investors, on the other hand, can selectively look for buying opportunities as several quality stocks are now available at a good bargain.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Jun 20, 2022 06:43 am
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