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Market may remain rangebound amid auto sales, expiry, US macroeconomic data

We are of the view that as long as Nifty is trading below 17325, the correction wave is likely to continue in the near future and below the same the chances of hitting a 200-day SMA or 17000 would turn bright, says Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities .

March 28, 2022 / 08:05 AM IST
Mumbai,,India,-,December,19,,2018:,Old,Structure,Of,Share
Market fell nearly 1 percent in the rangebound week ended March 25. The market also broke the two-week gaining streak with FIIs turning net sellers again amid geopolitical tensions leading to higher crude prices and concern over new COVID-19 variants breaking out in China. For the week, BSE Sensex shed 501.73 points (0.86 percent) to end at 57,362.2, while the Nifty50 fell 134.05 points (0.77 percent) to end at 17,153 levels.
Shibani Kurian, Senior EVP & Head- Equity Research, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company | Going forward, market participants would likely keep an eye on the development surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. On other hand, any truce between Russia and Ukraine could possibly lead to a cooling off of global crude and commodity prices. Global central bank policy moves and the policy response of the central bank in India would be the other key events to watch out for.
Shibani Kurian, Senior EVP & Head- Equity Research, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company | Going forward, market participants would likely keep an eye on the development surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. On other hand, any truce between Russia and Ukraine could possibly lead to a cooling off of global crude and commodity prices. Global central bank policy moves and the policy response of the central bank in India would be the other key events to watch out for.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | FIIs turning into buying mode is a positive for the market, however, due to the ongoing global uncertainties, domestic retail investors lacked the confidence to take fresh positions. Ease in covid restrictions in India are a boost to sectors like hospitality, multiplex, transportation, etc leading to its outperformance. The domestic market will continue to follow global developments. An end to the war & rise in oil supply can help India to sustain its resilience or else high volatility will be a concern in the short-term.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | FIIs turning into buying mode is a positive for the market, however, due to the ongoing global uncertainties, domestic retail investors lacked the confidence to take fresh positions. Ease in covid restrictions in India are a boost to sectors like hospitality, multiplex, transportation, etc leading to its outperformance. The domestic market will continue to follow global developments. An end to the war & rise in oil supply can help India to sustain its resilience or else high volatility will be a concern in the short-term.
Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management | The unfolding of the geopolitical events will dominate the market sentiments, as this war has an outsized impact on the energy prices. The effect of the war on inflation around the globe and the response of the central banks to tackle it may largely influence the direction of the markets over the near to medium term.
Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management | The unfolding of the geopolitical events will dominate the market sentiments, as this war has an outsized impact on the energy prices. The effect of the war on inflation around the globe and the response of the central banks to tackle it may largely influence the direction of the markets over the near to medium term.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | Aside from the developments on the Covid outbreak in China and the war, macroeconomic data from the US, such as GDP growth rate and unemployment rate, will influence markets globally. Back home volatility would be the main course of action as the last monthly expiry of this fiscal is scheduled next week. Further, taking into consideration that the automobile companies' monthly sales numbers are anticipated to be a mixed bag, D-Street will keep a close eye on those who miss estimates. With volatility high, markets are expected to remain largely range-bound and investors are advised to continue to invest in pockets with a reasonable margin of safety for the long term.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | Aside from the developments on the Covid outbreak in China and the war, macroeconomic data from the US, such as GDP growth rate and unemployment rate, will influence markets globally. Back home volatility would be the main course of action as the last monthly expiry of this fiscal is scheduled next week. Further, taking into consideration that the automobile companies' monthly sales numbers are anticipated to be a mixed bag, D-Street will keep a close eye on those who miss estimates. With volatility high, markets are expected to remain largely range-bound and investors are advised to continue to invest in pockets with a reasonable margin of safety for the long term.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | The scheduled monthly expiry of March month derivatives contracts would keep the volatile high next week. Besides, participants will also be eyeing the auto sales data starting April 1. On the global front, updates on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on world markets and movement in the crude will remain in focus. Markets are showing resilience amid uncertainty however deterioration in the global sentiment may again turn the bias. For any directional move in the benchmark, the participation of the banking index is critical, which is currently witnessing diverge trend. Amid all, we reiterate our positive yet cautious stance and suggest focusing on sectors like metals, IT, and pharma which are performing well.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | The scheduled monthly expiry of March month derivatives contracts would keep the volatile high next week. Besides, participants will also be eyeing the auto sales data starting April 1. On the global front, updates on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on world markets and movement in the crude will remain in focus. Markets are showing resilience amid uncertainty however deterioration in the global sentiment may again turn the bias. For any directional move in the benchmark, the participation of the banking index is critical, which is currently witnessing diverge trend. Amid all, we reiterate our positive yet cautious stance and suggest focusing on sectors like metals, IT, and pharma which are performing well.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Markets are unable to sustain at higher levels as selling pressure emerge around 17,350-17,400. A strong close above this can take the Nifty towards 17600-17750 zones. Among the broader market, leisure and tourism segment is witnessing lot of interest after the government removed most of the Codid-19 restrictions. Stocks in the multiplex, hotels, travel as well as entertainment space are likely to do well.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Markets are unable to sustain at higher levels as selling pressure emerge around 17,350-17,400. A strong close above this can take the Nifty towards 17600-17750 zones. Among the broader market, leisure and tourism segment is witnessing lot of interest after the government removed most of the Codid-19 restrictions. Stocks in the multiplex, hotels, travel as well as entertainment space are likely to do well.
Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking | Technically, the nifty50 is trading in the range of 17000-17400 levels as the index is managing to sustain above 17000 levels which points out strength for upside. However, the momentum indicator MACD in trading with positive crossover on daily charts which indicates upside movement can be seen. Moreover, the index has managed to close above 21-DMA sustained above the same can show northward direction. The Nifty is having strong support at 17000 marks while on the upside 17400 may act as an immediate hurdle for the index, crossing above the same can show upside movement. On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 34800 levels while resistance at 36500 levels.
Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking | Technically, the nifty50 is trading in the range of 17000-17400 levels as the index is managing to sustain above 17000 levels which points out strength for upside. However, the momentum indicator MACD in trading with positive crossover on daily charts which indicates upside movement can be seen. Moreover, the index has managed to close above 21-DMA sustained above the same can show northward direction. The Nifty is having strong support at 17000 marks while on the upside 17400 may act as an immediate hurdle for the index, crossing above the same can show upside movement. On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 34800 levels while resistance at 36500 levels.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | We are of the view that as long as the index is trading below 17325, the correction wave is likely to continue in the near future and below the same the chances of hitting a 200-day SMA or 17000 would turn bright. On extended weakness, the index may fall up to 16900-16870 levels. On the other hand, fresh uptrend is possible only after the level of 17325. Above the same, one quick pullback rally till 17400-17450 is not ruled out.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | We are of the view that as long as Nifty is trading below 17325, the correction wave is likely to continue in the near future and below the same the chances of hitting a 200-day SMA or 17000 would turn bright. On extended weakness, the index may fall up to 16900-16870 levels. On the other hand, fresh uptrend is possible only after the level of 17325. Above the same, one quick pullback rally till 17400-17450 is not ruled out.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Mar 28, 2022 08:05 am