LIVE NOW:Watch the Definedge Conference on Market Analysis (DECMA). Join Now

Market may continue to consolidate on the back of weak global cues: Experts

Indications are in favour of further decline in the index and Nifty's next support is at 14,400 and 14,200 zone, says Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking.

March 01, 2021 / 08:40 AM IST
(Image:Pixabay)
Last week, the market tumbled 3 percent largely due to the Friday's selling which was led by worries over the rising US bond yields. BSE Sensex fell 1,789.77 points, or 3.5 percent, for the week to end at 49,099.99, while the Nifty50 shed 452.6 points, or 3 percent, to finish at 14,529.15 levels. Here is what experts are saying about last week's performance and their views on what to expect this week:
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities | For the next few weeks, the market trend would depend on the long-term bond yield trend, which should be on the watch list. Technically, the Nifty and the Sensex fell by 568 and 1,939 points respectively. Bank Nifty lost 1750 points, which is the biggest in the last six months. The market has established a series of ‘lower top and lower bottom’ that would be negative for the medium-term trend of the market. The Nifty / Sensex would find support at 14,300/48,000 for the coming week. If the market falls to 14,300-14,350 / 48,200 without meaningful bounce, then it would be a buying opportunity for short term / medium term traders/investors.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities | For the next few weeks, the market trend would depend on the long-term bond yield trend, which should be on the watch list. Technically, the Nifty and the Sensex fell by 568 and 1,939 points respectively. Bank Nifty lost 1750 points, which is the biggest in the last six months. The market has established a series of ‘lower top and lower bottom’ that would be negative for the medium-term trend of the market. The Nifty / Sensex would find support at 14,300/48,000 for the coming week. If the market falls to 14,300-14,350 / 48,200 without meaningful bounce, then it would be a buying opportunity for short term / medium term traders/investors.
Nirali Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | Going ahead, equity markets could remain under pressure as the normal course of correction continues to take shape. Now with expectations of a fresh stimulus in the US, there could be more helicopter money in the system. However, how many more liquidity infusions will be needed for the economy to stand on its own only time will tell. Meanwhile, market participants should keep an eye on bond yields and the movement of USD/INR which could undergo some depreciation. Investors in need of liquidity could book profits from certain stock pockets but long term investors should continue to remain invested.
Nirali Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | Going ahead, equity markets could remain under pressure as the normal course of correction continues to take shape. Now with expectations of a fresh stimulus in the US, there could be more helicopter money in the system. However, how many more liquidity infusions will be needed for the economy to stand on its own only time will tell. Meanwhile, market participants should keep an eye on bond yields and the movement of USD/INR which could undergo some depreciation. Investors in need of liquidity could book profits from certain stock pockets but long term investors should continue to remain invested.
BSE Sensex
Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities | One may expect further slide down towards the next crucial supports of around 14,350-14,300 levels in the coming few sessions, before showing any possibility of an upside bounce. Upside rise from here could find stiff resistance at 14,640.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Going ahead the market may continue with its consolidation given weak global cues. Investors would closely track bond yields, geopolitical tensions and inflation data for further market direction and would monitor developments around new US stimulus announcement. Market would also react to the Q3FY21 GDP data on Monday. Even high valuations does not provide much comfort and thus correction was long overdue. Investors should take this opportunity to buy on dips while traders should trade cautiously with stock specific action and book profits in regular intervals.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Going ahead the market may continue with its consolidation given weak global cues. Investors would closely track bond yields, geopolitical tensions and inflation data for further market direction and would monitor developments around new US stimulus announcement. Market would also react to the Q3FY21 GDP data on Monday. Even high valuations does not provide much comfort and thus correction was long overdue. Investors should take this opportunity to buy on dips while traders should trade cautiously with stock specific action and book profits in regular intervals.
Rusmik Oza, Executive Vice President, Head of Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities | We are not extremely bearish on the market as the massive stimulus which is likely to continue in this calendar year and economic recovery put together should provide support to market at lower levels. For India, most of the factors driving markets are in place except for valuations. As time goes by India’s valuations will moderate making it a good buy on dips market going forward. The Nifty-50 range of 13,000 to 14,500 is an ideal range to accumulate stocks from 2 to 3 years perspective. Since valuations are still very much on the higher side it is not wise to invest and expect healthy returns in less than one year. As we go into the calendar year we could witness further rise in bond yield which will lead to moderation in equity valuations thereby suppressing returns from a short-to-medium term. Our belief in economy driven sectors has further strengthened after the budget. Few sectors and pockets that we can visualise can make money for investors given their past underperformance and potential recovery are banks, capital goods, construction, engineering, oil & gas, cement, real estate & metals. Hence, one can have an accumulation strategy in economy driven sectors on every decline.
Rusmik Oza, Executive Vice President, Head of Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities | We are not extremely bearish on the market as the massive stimulus which is likely to continue in this calendar year and economic recovery put together should provide support to market at lower levels. For India, most of the factors driving markets are in place except for valuations. As time goes by India’s valuations will moderate making it a good buy on dips market going forward. The Nifty-50 range of 13,000 to 14,500 is an ideal range to accumulate stocks from 2 to 3 years perspective. Since valuations are still very much on the higher side it is not wise to invest and expect healthy returns in less than one year. As we go into the calendar year we could witness further rise in bond yield which will lead to moderation in equity valuations thereby suppressing returns from a short-to-medium term. Our belief in economy driven sectors has further strengthened after the budget. Few sectors and pockets that we can visualise can make money for investors given their past underperformance and potential recovery are banks, capital goods, construction, engineering, oil & gas, cement, real estate & metals. Hence, one can have an accumulation strategy in economy driven sectors on every decline.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | Markets will first react to the GDP data in early trades on Monday i.e. March 1. Going ahead, the rising bond yields continue to remain a key concern for equity markets worldwide. Although the recent Fed statements have been comforting. On the domestic front, key data like auto sales numbers and manufacturing PMI & services PMI would also be on the radar. Indications are in the favour of further decline in the index and Nifty has next support at 14,400 and 14,200 zone. We thus advise using rebound to create short positions and prefer index majors over others.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | Markets will first react to the GDP data in early trades on Monday i.e. March 1. Going ahead, the rising bond yields continue to remain a key concern for equity markets worldwide. Although the recent Fed statements have been comforting. On the domestic front, key data like auto sales numbers and manufacturing PMI & services PMI would also be on the radar. Indications are in the favour of further decline in the index and Nifty has next support at 14,400 and 14,200 zone. We thus advise using rebound to create short positions and prefer index majors over others.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Mar 1, 2021 08:31 am

stay updated

Get Daily News on your Browser
Sections