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Market eyes Ukraine developments, F&O expiry; 17200 a strong support for Nifty: Experts

Direction-wise, fresh range breakout is possible only after 17500. Above which it could rally till 17600-17750. On the downside, the Nifty, could hit 17200 and the key support level, the same strong possibility of quick correction is not ruled out. Below 17200 chances of hitting 17000 and 16900 would turn bright, says Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities.

February 21, 2022 / 07:29 AM IST
Indian equity benchmark indices extended the losing streak in the second week ended February 18 amid high volatility in the face of escalating geopolitical tension, rising crude oil prices and relentless FII selling. In the last week, the BSE Sensex fell 319.95 points (0.55 percent) to end at 57,832.97, while the Nifty50 shed 98.45 points (0.56 percent) to close at 17,276.3.
Indian equity benchmark indices extended the losing streak in the second week ended February 18 amid high volatility in the face of escalating geopolitical tension, rising crude oil prices and relentless FII selling. In the last week, the BSE Sensex fell 319.95 points (0.55 percent) to end at 57,832.97, while the Nifty50 shed 98.45 points (0.56 percent) to close at 17,276.3.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities | With Q3FY22 results season now behind us, the domestic markets will continue to focus on geopolitical events, Central bank measures, bond yields, oil prices, inflation numbers, and global/domestic macro data.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities | With Q3FY22 results season now behind us, the domestic markets will continue to focus on geopolitical events, Central bank measures, bond yields, oil prices, inflation numbers, and global/domestic macro data.
Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities | Nifty remains in a medium term uptrend while for the short term consolidation is expected. The trading range is seen at 17100-17550. For the February series expect limited upside with reversal confirmation seen only above 17550. Mixed activity is seen across sectors with stock specific activity expected to continue in the near term. Value is seen in FMCG and select BFSI stocks – pharma is expected to underperform.
Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities | Nifty remains in a medium term uptrend while for the short term consolidation is expected. The trading range is seen at 17100-17550. For the February series expect limited upside with reversal confirmation seen only above 17550. Mixed activity is seen across sectors with stock specific activity expected to continue in the near term. Value is seen in FMCG and select BFSI stocks – pharma is expected to underperform.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | On the lower end, 17200 may act as support for the falling market. The trend is likely to remain bullish in the days to come as long as 17200 is held. On the higher end, crucial resistance is placed at 17500.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | On the lower end, 17200 may act as support for the falling market. The trend is likely to remain bullish in the days to come as long as 17200 is held. On the higher end, crucial resistance is placed at 17500.
Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments | The market is stuck in a range which is between 17200 and 17500. Until we do not get past either level, we will not witness a meaningful move. A break of either side will result in a 300-400 point move.
Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments | The market is stuck in a range which is between 17200 and 17500. Until we do not get past either level, we will not witness a meaningful move. A break of either side will result in a 300-400 point move.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | With earnings season behind us and given the overall tone, markets are expected to move in tandem with global peers in the coming week. Market players will keep a careful eye on developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and given the inflation overhang, they will also pay attention to movements in energy prices. Back home, due to the monthly expiry, D-street's line of action would be volatility. Furthermore, with given the ongoing assembly polls, political uncertainty will reign and hence, investors are recommended to remain on the sidelines until some level of stability is restored.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | With earnings season behind us and given the overall tone, markets are expected to move in tandem with global peers in the coming week. Market players will keep a careful eye on developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and given the inflation overhang, they will also pay attention to movements in energy prices. Back home, due to the monthly expiry, D-street's line of action would be volatility. Furthermore, with given the ongoing assembly polls, political uncertainty will reign and hence, investors are recommended to remain on the sidelines until some level of stability is restored.
Rahul Sharma - Equity 99 | The volatile movement in market continues considering weak global clues. Investors are advised to be cautious and invest in lots. We see the weakness to continue in market in coming time. Also investors are advised to keep idle cash to take advantage of any future dips. For Nifty50 17200 will act as very strong support, if this level is breached than 17150 will be next strong support, post which market might take support at 17000 level. On upper side 17370 will be strong resistance, if this level is breached than next hurdle will be 17475 post which 17550 will act as strong resistance level.
Rahul Sharma - Equity 99 | The volatile movement in market continues considering weak global clues. Investors are advised to be cautious and invest in lots. We see the weakness to continue in market in coming time. Also investors are advised to keep idle cash to take advantage of any future dips. For Nifty50 17200 will act as very strong support, if this level is breached than 17150 will be next strong support, post which market might take support at 17000 level. On upper side 17370 will be strong resistance, if this level is breached than next hurdle will be 17475 post which 17550 will act as strong resistance level.
Shibani Kurian, Senior EVP & Head- Equity Research, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company | Going forward, investors would be watchful of the outcome of US Federal Reserve policy in March and Russia-Ukraine conflict. Crude is on an uptrend and trajectory of crude prices along with inflation in India and globally and the pace of earnings growth in India would be the key factors to watch out for.
Shibani Kurian, Senior EVP & Head- Equity Research, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company | Going forward, investors would be watchful of the outcome of US Federal Reserve policy in March and Russia-Ukraine conflict. Crude is on an uptrend and trajectory of crude prices along with inflation in India and globally and the pace of earnings growth in India would be the key factors to watch out for.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The last three days of the movement in the index indicate caution among the participants due to uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine tension. We feel it will end soon and any favourable development over the weekend may result in a strong start next week. However, on the flip side, in case of a negative surprise, the reaction could be equally severe. Meanwhile, we recommend sticking to hedged positions and suggest preferring index majors over others. On the index front, Nifty needs a decisive close above 17,500 to regain strength while the 16,800-17,000 zone would remain the key support.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The last three days of the movement in the index indicate caution among the participants due to uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine tension. We feel it will end soon and any favourable development over the weekend may result in a strong start next week. However, on the flip side, in case of a negative surprise, the reaction could be equally severe. Meanwhile, we recommend sticking to hedged positions and suggest preferring index majors over others. On the index front, Nifty needs a decisive close above 17,500 to regain strength while the 16,800-17,000 zone would remain the key support.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | Technically, on daily and weekly charts, the market is holding lower top formation and is consistently facing resistance between 20 and 50 day-SMA. Direction-wise, fresh range breakout is possible only after 17500. Above which it could rally till 17600-17750. On the downside, the Nifty, could hit 17200 and the key support level, the same strong possibility of quick correction is not ruled out. Below 17200 chances of hitting 17000 and 16900 would turn bright.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | Technically, on daily and weekly charts, the market is holding lower top formation and is consistently facing resistance between 20 and 50 day-SMA. Direction-wise, fresh range breakout is possible only after 17500. Above which it could rally till 17600-17750. On the downside, the Nifty, could hit 17200 and the key support level, the same strong possibility of quick correction is not ruled out. Below 17200 chances of hitting 17000 and 16900 would turn bright.
Prashanth Tapse, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities | Honestly speaking, the prospects of war have not gone away as Russia continues to build up troops on the Ukraine border. The street also fears inflation will only worsen as oil prices could surge. Technically speaking, the biggest make-or-break support for Nifty was seen at the 17057 mark. Below the 17057 mark, expect waterfall of selling which shall take Nifty down to 16837 mark and then finally to the 16410 mark.
Prashanth Tapse, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities | Honestly speaking, the prospects of war have not gone away as Russia continues to build up troops on the Ukraine border. The street also fears inflation will only worsen as oil prices could surge. Technically speaking, the biggest make-or-break support for Nifty was seen at the 17057 mark. Below the 17057 mark, expect waterfall of selling which shall take Nifty down to 16837 mark and then finally to the 16410 mark.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Equity markets have seen rise in volatility in the last couple of days due to varying news flows coming in from Ukraine border. Nifty has been trading in a broader range of 16,800-17,400 and needs a decisive breakout on either side for clear direction. Volatility is expected to remain high next week as well, given the crucial meeting between US and Russia. Inflationary concern, continuous FIIs selling and monthly FNO expiry could add to the volatility next week.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Equity markets have seen rise in volatility in the last couple of days due to varying news flows coming in from Ukraine border. Nifty has been trading in a broader range of 16,800-17,400 and needs a decisive breakout on either side for clear direction. Volatility is expected to remain high next week as well, given the crucial meeting between US and Russia. Inflationary concern, continuous FIIs selling and monthly F&O expiry could add to the volatility next week.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | As current global cues are forcing global equities to remain unstable, the domestic market is also expected to continue its volatile trend in the coming days. In such a volatile market a prudent approach is to have a balanced portfolio with a mix of equity, debt, gold, and cash.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | As current global cues are forcing global equities to remain unstable, the domestic market is also expected to continue its volatile trend in the coming days. In such a volatile market a prudent approach is to have a balanced portfolio with a mix of equity, debt, gold, and cash.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Feb 21, 2022 07:26 am
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