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Macro data, earnings, geo-political tensions to be in focus during holiday-shortened week: Experts

With the overhang of monetary policy now behind us, the geo-political tension between China & Taiwan will be in focus, as any flare up in the region may lead to panic situations across the globe, says Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities.

August 08, 2022 / 09:26 AM IST
Indian Benchmark Sensex Tops 50,000 Mark for the First Time Ever
The benchmark indices rose more than 1 percent each in the week ended August 5 continuing their winning streak for the third straight week. For the week, BSE Sensex added 817.68 points (1.42 percent) to end at 58,387.93, while the Nifty50 rose 239.25 points (1.39 percent) to close at 17,397.5 levels. The market will remain shut on August 9 on account of Muharram.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | For the coming week, 17500 – 17650 remains a sturdy wall and till the time, we do not surpass it convincingly, we would continue to see some tentativeness at higher levels. On the flipside, 17300 followed by 17150 has now become a sacrosanct support. Considering the overall development, we expect some consolidation to continue in the coming week as well. Traders are advised not to carry aggressive bets overnight for a while and ideally, the strategy would be to follow one step at a time and respect levels on either side. At the start of the week, the stock specific movements were a bit vibrant, but it seems to have cooled off a bit towards the end. Hence, we need to see what all themes emerge as we step into the new week.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | For the coming week, 17500 – 17650 remains a sturdy wall and till the time, we do not surpass it convincingly, we would continue to see some tentativeness at higher levels. On the flipside, 17300 followed by 17150 has now become a sacrosanct support. Considering the overall development, we expect some consolidation to continue in the coming week as well. Traders are advised not to carry aggressive bets overnight for a while and ideally, the strategy would be to follow one step at a time and respect levels on either side.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | The short term trend for the Nifty still remains positive as there’s no confirmation of reversal yet. However, the momentum readings on the daily chart are in an overbought zone and hence one should be vigilant on important market levels in the coming week. 17160 which will be the important support now and hence all existing long positions should now be trailed with a stoploss below this support. On the other hand, 17500 is the immediate resistance and if the index moves above that, it will result in a continuation of the uptrend and it can then move towards the 78.6 percent of the entire correction which is around 17870.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | The short-term trend for Nifty still remains positive as there’s no confirmation of reversal yet. However, the momentum readings on the daily chart are in an overbought zone and hence one should be vigilant on important market levels in the coming week. 17160 which will be the important support now and hence all existing long positions should now be trailed with a stop loss below this support. On the other hand, 17500 is the immediate resistance and if the index moves above that, it will result in a continuation of the uptrend and it can then move towards the 78.6 percent of the entire correction which is around 17870.
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives, Samco Securities | On a macroeconomic front, the upcoming week is expected to be jam-packed for investors. The global markets are likely to dance to the tune of the inflation figures to be released by the United States and China. Back home, market players will turn to the Indian CPI print for hints about the economy's trajectory. After a remarkable comeback from the bottom of the 15,200 mark in June, it appears like the bulls are running out of steam. On the hourly charts, the Nifty is forming a bearish divergence with the RSI, indicating that the upward momentum is slowing. Throughout the week, the index encountered resistance around 17,500. This level is also expected to act as a resistance in the next week too. On the downside, 17,000 is anticipated to provide significant support for the index.
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives, Samco Securities | On a macroeconomic front, the upcoming week is expected to be jam-packed for investors. The global markets are likely to dance to the tune of the inflation figures to be released by the United States and China. Back home, market players will turn to the Indian CPI print for hints about the economy's trajectory. After a remarkable comeback from the bottom of the 15,200 mark in June, it appears like the bulls are running out of steam. On the hourly charts, the Nifty is forming a bearish divergence with the RSI, indicating that the upward momentum is slowing. Throughout the week, the index encountered resistance around 17,500. This level is also expected to act as a resistance in the next week too. On the downside, 17,000 is anticipated to provide significant support for the index.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | With the overhang of monetary policy now behind us, the geo-political tension between China & Taiwan will be in focus, as any flare up in the region may lead to panic situations across the globe. Technically, on weekly charts, the index has formed a bullish candle. Further, daily and intraday charts are indicating the continuation of a non-directional activity in the near future. The short texture of the market is still on the bullish side but a fresh uptrend rally is possible only after the 17500 breakout level. Above the same, the index could rally up to 17600-17750. On the flip side, below 17500, the index would retest the level of 17250-17200 and if the downside continues, it may correct up to 17050-17000.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | With the overhang of monetary policy now behind us, the geo-political tension between China & Taiwan will be in focus, as any flare up in the region may lead to panic situations across the globe. Technically, on weekly charts, the index has formed a bullish candle. Further, daily and intraday charts are indicating the continuation of a non-directional activity in the near future. The short texture of the market is still on the bullish side but a fresh uptrend rally is possible only after the 17500 breakout level. Above the same, the index could rally up to 17600-17750. On the flip side, below 17500, the index would retest the level of 17250-17200 and if the downside continues, it may correct up to 17050-17000.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The coming week is a holiday-shortened one and participants will be closely eyeing global markets and domestic factors viz. earnings and macroeconomic data for cues. Further escalation of China-Taiwan tension may result in volatile swings. On the data front, we have IIP and CPI inflation scheduled for August 12. Nifty has been taking a breather after the sharp surge and it’s healthy. It’s more of a time-wise correction so far as it’s still holding around the upper range of the consolidation zone. A decisive close above 17,400 would further fuel the momentum towards the 17,700-17,800 zone else range bound move would continue. On the downside, the 16,800-17,150 zone holds major support.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The coming week is a holiday-shortened one and participants will be closely eyeing global markets and domestic factors viz. earnings and macroeconomic data for cues. Further escalation of China-Taiwan tension may result in volatile swings. On the data front, we have IIP and CPI inflation scheduled for August 12. Nifty has been taking a breather after the sharp surge and it’s healthy. It’s more of a time-wise correction so far as it’s still holding around the upper range of the consolidation zone. A decisive close above 17,400 would further fuel the momentum towards the 17,700-17,800 zone else range bound move would continue. On the downside, the 16,800-17,150 zone holds major support.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Nifty has been consolidating below the 17500 mark for last few sessions, after rising up by almost 1000 points in the previous week. At current levels, Nifty trades at 20x FY23 PE, which is above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Despite mixed global cues including geopolitical tensions and higher volatility, Indian markets are holding out well with strong buying emerging at lower levels. While the pace of momentum may slow down, we expect market to maintain its positive bias in the near term.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Nifty has been consolidating below the 17500 mark for last few sessions, after rising up by almost 1000 points in the previous week. At current levels, Nifty trades at 20x FY23 PE, which is above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Despite mixed global cues including geopolitical tensions and higher volatility, Indian markets are holding out well with strong buying emerging at lower levels. While the pace of momentum may slow down, we expect market to maintain its positive bias in the near term.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Aug 8, 2022 06:14 am
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