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Global cues to dictate market trend in near-term; 15,000 key for further upside: Experts

Nifty has to cross and hold above 15,000 to witness an up move towards 15,150-15,250 zones, while on the downside immediate support exists at 14,800-14,600 levels, says Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

March 08, 2021 / 08:30 AM IST
Sensex
The Indian market made a smart comeback last week with benchmark indices rising over 2 percent. However, weakness in the last two sessions cut profits and pulled Nifty back below the psychological 15,000 mark. Improving macro numbers and a strong showing from autos in February lifted sentiment, while rising bond yeilds and weak global cues kept bulls in check. Last week, BSE Sensex added 1,305.33 points or 2.6 percent to end at 50,405.32 and Nifty50 rose 408.95 points or 2.8 percent to finish at 14,938.1 levels. BSE Smallcap index rose nearly 4 percent and the Midcap index added 3 percent. Nifty's weekly Options data reflect a broad range of Call addition at 15,000-16,000 strike, said Shubham Agarwal, CEO & Head of Research at Quantsapp. "Multiple resistance points can be seen in Nifty. However, immediate resistance stands at 15,000 and vital resistance stands at 15,500 strike. Put has remained on lighter side in term of addition as compared to calls. Immediate support stands at 14,500 strike, followed by vital support level at 14,000," he said. Nifty Media outperformed other sectoral indices with a gain of 6.5 percent. Bank Nifty underperformed Nifty with selling pressure seen at high levels. Bank Nifty futures, last week, gyrated between 34,890 and 36,580 - nearly 1,700 points and ended up gaining nearly 1.2 percent. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought equities worth Rs 2,199.74 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold equities worth Rs 2,635.39 crore last week. Here is what the experts have to say about this week:
Manish Hathiramani of Deen Dayal Investments | On Friday, the markets have had yet another day in the red. However, it has not broken the medium term support range of 14,700-14,800. If we break that, we could travel south to levels closer to 14,400-14,500. If we bounce from these levels, we would need to get past the 15,300 level to move to higher targets of 15,500-15,600. Until then the Nifty is going to be range bound and choppy.
Manish Hathiramani of Deen Dayal Investments | Despite weakness in the last two sessions, the market has not broken the medium term support range of 14,700-14,800. If it breaks that, we could fall to levels which are closer to 14,400-14,500. If it bounces from these levels, we would need to get past the 15,300 level to move to higher targets of 15,500-15,600. Until then, the Nifty is going to be range bound and choppy.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities | In the short term until the market is not breaking 15,280 levels our bias should be on the downside. In the coming week, we could see, Nifty/Sensex touching minimum 14,750/50,000 or 14,550/49,300 levels. On the higher side, 15,150/51,200 and 15,280/51,600 would be major hurdles. The focus should be on FMCG and Auto companies.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities | In the short term, until the market is not breaking 15,280 levels, our bias should be on the downside. In the coming week, we could see Nifty/Sensex touching 14,750/50,000 or 14,550/49,300 levels. On the higher side, 15,150/51,200 and 15,280/51,600 would be major hurdles. The focus should be on FMCG and auto companies.
Ashis Biswas, Head of Technical Research at CapitalVia Global Research | Nifty 50 Index is still trading below the resistance level of 15,250. The expected level should range between 14,900 and 15,250, and it’s going to be crucial for the short-term market scenario to stay above the 15,050 levels. While it is subject to further price action evolution, it is prudent to wait for a decisive breakout above 15,250 and technical factors to improve before going long in the market. The traders are advised to refrain from building a new buying position until further improvement.
Ashis Biswas, Head of Technical Research at CapitalVia Global Research | Nifty50 is still trading below the resistance level of 15,250. The expected level should range between 14,900 and 15,250, and it’s going to be crucial for the short-term market scenario to stay above 15,050 levels. While it is subject to further price action evolution, it is prudent to wait for a decisive breakout above 15,250 and technical factors to improve before going long in the market. The traders are advised to refrain from building a new buying position until further improvement.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | While the long term structure of the market continues to remain positive, it may face some hurdles in the near term due to concerns over the bond yields, commodity prices and risk of increase in inflation. Investors would also look at global cues for further direction. Technically, Nifty formed a small Bearish candle on daily scale. Now, it has to cross and hold above 15,000 zones to witness an up move towards 15,150-15,250 zones while on the downside immediate support exists at 14,800-14,600 levels.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | While the long term structure of the market continues to remain positive, it may face some hurdles in the near term due to concerns over the bond yields, commodity prices and risk of increase in inflation. Investors would also look at global cues for further direction. Technically, Nifty formed a small Bearish candle on daily scale. Now, it has to cross and hold above 15,000 zones to witness an up move towards 15,150-15,250 zones. On the downside, immediate support exists at 14,800-14,600 levels.
Rusmik Oza, Executive Vice President, Head of Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities | In the absence of any major domestic trigger Indian markets could take cue from global developments and US markets. Nfity-50 could test the 50 DMA next week placed at 14,585 and if it breaks it then it can slide down to 13,000-13,600 range. The tone of the market seems to be on the downside for now.
Rusmik Oza, Executive Vice President, Head of Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities | In the absence of any major domestic triggers, the Indian market could take cues from global developments and the US market. Nfity50 could test the 50 DMA placed at 14,585 and if it breaks it then it can slide down to 13,000-13,600 range. The tone of the market seems to be on the downside for now. The Nasdaq Composite Index has broken the 50 DMA decisively and could head towards the 200 DMA which is at 11,500 versus current levels of 12,723. The S&P 500 Index has also broken the 50 DMA. If the S&P 500 sustains below the 50 DMA then it can attempt to test the 200 DMA which is 8% below current levels.
Nirali Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | In the absence of any crucial events in India, market participants would keep a vigilant eye on the US for any major triggers. Any unexpected outcome in the 3/10/30 year US treasury auctions arranged next week could directly influence bond yields and in-turn equity valuation. Back home, the IPO season is on in full swing with a dozen other primary issues expected in March, showing the excess liquidity in the system. In the past few months, value and cyclical stocks have gained good momentum and investors are suggested to continue to hold these stocks. Since gold has retraced from its highs, investors can look to allocate a small portion of their portfolio towards gold for adequate diversification.
Nirali Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | In the absence of any crucial events in India, market participants would keep a vigilant eye on the US for major triggers. Any unexpected outcome in the 3/10/30 year US treasury auctions arranged next week could directly influence bond yields and in-turn equity valuation. Back home, the IPO season is on in full swing with a dozen other primary issues expected in March, showing the excess liquidity in the system. In the past few months, value and cyclical stocks have gained good momentum and investors are suggested to continue to hold these stocks. Since gold has retraced from its highs, investors can look to allocate a small portion of their portfolio towards gold for adequate diversification.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | It’s not surprising to see that the way markets are reacting to the global cues, in absence of any major trigger from the domestic front. Going ahead, we feel global cues would continue to dictate the market trend in the near term. Besides, on the domestic front, key macro data like CPI, WPI and IIP would be on investors' radar. We reiterate our view to limit naked leveraged trades until we see some clarity emerging over the next directional move.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | It’s not surprising to see the way markets are reacting to the global cues in absence of any major trigger from the domestic front. Going ahead, we feel global cues would continue to dictate the market trend in the near term. Besides, on the domestic front, key macro data like CPI, WPI and IIP would be on investors' radar. We reiterate our view to limit naked leveraged trades until we see some clarity emerging over the next directional move.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Mar 8, 2021 08:11 am

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