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FOMC minutes, China inflation data, India Inc earnings on investors' radar this week: Experts

For a major rally to unfold we need to see Nifty moving above 15950-16000 and hold above it for some time, says Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst.

July 04, 2022 / 09:47 AM IST
BSE
Markets ended the week on July 1 with marginal gains amid heavy volatility. The BSE Sensex was up 179.95 points (0.34 percent) to close at 52,907.93, while the Nifty50 was up 52.75 points (0.33 percent) to end at 15,752 levels.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | Market is expected to remain volatile due to a slew of market-moving events. On the macroeconomic front, investors will be watching FOMC minutes to see where the economy is headed. Furthermore, global markets would be influenced by China's inflation figures, which are due next week. Back home, the first quarter of fiscal year 23 earnings season will drive market sentiment and stock-specific actions. Investors should pay careful attention to management commentary and select solid fundamental companies in order to focus on the long term picture. The short-term trend continues to remain bearish, but the Nifty has outshone its global peers, with most global equity indices trading or breaking below their recent support. The 15930 resistance level has become a critical resistance level, which needs to be broken to confirm the short-term uptrend. As long as the Nifty does not break above this level, traders should maintain a neutral to a faintly negative outlook. Negative global sentiments are likely to keep the market under strain till then.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | The market is expected to remain volatile due to a slew of market-moving events. On the macroeconomic front, investors will be watching FOMC minutes to see where the economy is headed. Global markets would be influenced by China's inflation figures, which are due next week. Back home, the first quarter of fiscal year 23 earnings season will drive market sentiment and stock-specific actions. Investors should pay careful attention to management commentary and select solid fundamental companies to focus on the long term picture. The short-term trend continues to remain bearish, but the Nifty has outshone its global peers, with most global equity indices trading or breaking below their recent support. The 15,930 resistance level has become critical and it needs to be broken to confirm the short-term uptrend. As long as the Nifty does not break above this level, traders should maintain a neutral to a faintly negative outlook. Negative global sentiments are likely to keep the market under strain till then.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | Overall structure shows that the index is likely to witness consolidation in the range of 15500-15900 in the coming sessions. It is expected to face selling pressure as it approaches 15900-16000 zone. On the other hand, dips towards 15600-15500 can be taken as buying opportunities.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | The overall structure shows that the index is likely to witness consolidation in the range of 15,500-15,900 in the coming sessions. It is expected to face selling pressure as it approaches 15,900-16,000 zone. On the other hand, dips towards 15,600-15,500 can be taken as buying opportunities.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The coming week marks the beginning of the earnings season and the IT major, TCS, would announce its number on July 8. Participants will be closely eyeing its results for any change in the guidance amid the fear of a global slowdown. Besides, the performance of the global indices, crude movement and updates on the ongoing tussle between Russia-Ukraine will be in focus. The recent consolidation in the index indicates caution among the participants and the Nifty needs a decisive break above 15,900 levels to extend the rebound towards the 16,200 zone else the sideways to negative bias will continue. On the downside, the 15,100-15,350 zone would act as a support. Among the sectors, we expect auto and FMCG to continue the prevailing momentum while other sectors may selective pitch in as well. Participants should maintain their focus on identifying stock-specific opportunities but keep a check on leveraged trades.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The coming week marks the beginning of the earnings season and IT major TCS would announce its number on July 8. Participants will be closely eyeing its results for any change in the guidance amid the fear of a global slowdown. Besides, the performance of the global indices, crude movement and updates on the ongoing tussle between Russia and Ukraine will be in focus. The recent consolidation in the index indicates caution among the participants and the Nifty needs a decisive break above 15,900 levels to extend the rebound towards the 16,200 zone, else the sideways-to-negative bias will continue. On the downside, the 15,100-15,350 zone would act as a support. Among the sectors, we expect auto and FMCG to continue the prevailing momentum, while other sectors may selectively pitch in as well. Participants should maintain their focus on identifying stock-specific opportunities but keep a check on leveraged trades.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | Nifty On the daily charts, Nifty has made a copy book hammer pattern. The color of the candle is green. Nifty is in a low price area and today’s rally from the low does show a high buyers resolve despite the fact that Reliance ( an index heavyweight) tanked. For a major rally to unfold we need to see Nifty moving above 15950-16000 and hold above it for some time. Nifty seems to be building a base before the break out happens. For the forthcoming week expect Nifty to trade in a band of 15950-15650. But we will be aggressive buyers once Nifty trades above 16000. On the weekly Nifty sees a red candle with a long lower shadow. As on date support is at 15700 holds. Major Pivot low is at 15300-15250 and this is the area of support for Nifty. Bank Nifty Bank Nifty also made a ow volatility small ranged candle on the Monthly time frame. Bank Nifty is currently below its 20-days moving average. We need to see Bank Nifty move above 33710-33750 for a rally to 35000. There is a small trend line just above this.. A break out of this trendline will take Bank Nifty to 36000. The MACD is in a buy mode and the short=term collective decline seems to be getting over.it could be bullish intervention in Bank Nifty in the weeks to come.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | For a major rally to unfold, we need to see the Nifty moving above 15,950-16,000 and hold above it for some time. The Nifty seems to be building a base before the break out happens. For the forthcoming week, expect the Nifty to trade in a band of 15,950-15,650. But we will be aggressive buyers once the Nifty trades above 16,000. On a weekly basis, the Nifty sees a red candle with a long lower shadow. As on date, support is at 15,700 holds. Major Pivot low is at 15300-15250 and this is the area of support for Nifty.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Jul 4, 2022 08:43 am
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