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Auto sales, US macro data, crude and rupee movement to dictate markets: Experts

The bulls need some support from global markets to continue Friday's momentum. The geopolitical situation, macro numbers from the USA, the direction of the US dollar index, and bond yields will be key factors to watch out for at the global level, says Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart.

October 03, 2022 / 07:31 AM IST
fando,sensex,nifty,derivative
The benchmark Indian indices fell 1 percent in a highly volatile week ended September 30. The BSE Sensex declined 672 points or 1.34 percent to close at 57,426.92, while the Nifty50 shed 233 points or 1.34 percent to end at 17,094.3. Let's take a look at what experts say about the week beginning today. 
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The coming week is a holiday-shortened one and marks the beginning of the new month also so important data like auto sales, S&P Manufacturing PMI and S&P Services PMI will be in focus. Besides, the performance of global markets, FIIs trend, and movement in currency and crude will also remain on participants’ radar. It’s going to be tough for markets to build on Friday’s rebound amid feeble global cues. We feel Nifty could extend this rebound to the 17,400-17,600 zone if it manages to surpass the crucial hurdle at 17,200 else profit taking would resume. On the downside, 16,650-16,800 would continue to act as a cushion.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | This will be a holiday-shortened week and it marks the beginning of the new month also. So, important data like auto sales, S&P Manufacturing PMI and S&P Services PMI will be in focus. Besides, the performance of global markets, FIIs trend, and movement in currency and crude will also remain on participants’ radar. It’s going to be tough for markets to build on Friday’s rebound amid feeble global cues. We feel Nifty could extend this rebound to the 17,400-17,600 zone if it manages to surpass the crucial hurdle at 17,200, else profit taking would resume. On the downside, 16,650-16,800 would continue to act as a cushion.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | The bulls need some support from global markets to continue Friday's momentum. The geopolitical situation, macro numbers from the USA, the direction of the US dollar index, and bond yields will be key factors to watch out for at the global level. On the upside, 17190 is an immediate hurdle and 17325-17425 is the next critical supply zone. Anecdotally, the first day's low or high of the new series acts as strong support and resistance throughout the series.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | The bulls need some support from global markets to continue Friday's momentum. The geopolitical situation, macro numbers from the US, the direction of the US dollar index, and bond yields will be key factors to watch out for at the global level. On the upside, 17190 is an immediate hurdle and 17,325-17,425 is the next critical supply zone. Anecdotally, the first day's low or high of the new series acts as strong support and resistance throughout the series.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | Going forward, the trend may remain bullish with an upside potential of 17300/17500. On the lower end, 16950/16800 may continue to act as crucial support for the short term.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | Going forward, the trend may remain bullish with an upside potential of 17,300/17,500. On the lower end, 16,950/16,800 may continue to act as crucial support for the short term.
Prashanth Tapse - Research Analyst, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities | The Nifty’s support is seen at 16747 mark and then downside should be well protected at 16477-16438 zone. There is a bright chance that the index could bounce to 17321 and then at 17727 mark with an interweek perspective.
Prashanth Tapse - Research Analyst, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities | The Nifty’s support is seen at 16,747 mark and then downside should be well protected at 16,477-16,438 zone. There is a bright chance that the index could bounce to 17,321 and then at 17,727 mark with an inter-week perspective.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For the trend following traders the 200- day SMA (Simple moving Average) and 16900 would act as a sacrosanct support zone. Above the same, the reversal wave is likely to continue till 17250. Further upside may also continue which could lift the index till 17400. On the flip side, below 16900, uptrend would be vulnerable and on further decline the index could slip till 16800-16700.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For the trend following traders the 200- day SMA (Simple moving Average) and 16900 would act as a sacrosanct support zone. Above the same, the reversal wave is likely to continue till 17,250. Further upside may also continue which could lift the index till 17,400. On the flip side, below 16,900, uptrend would be vulnerable and on further decline the index could slip till 16,800-16,700.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Nifty can now move towards 17,500-17,700 zones with key support around 17,000 and 16850. Auto and consumption sectors would be in focus ahead of monthly sales data and high demand in the ongoing Navaratri festival. Pharma sector is seeing some value buying as market focused on defensive names in times of global uncertainty.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | The Nifty can now move towards 17,500-17,700 zones with key support around 17,000 and 16,850. Auto and consumption sectors would be in focus ahead of monthly sales data and high demand in the ongoing Navaratri festival. Pharma sector is seeing some value buying as market focused on defensive names in times of global uncertainty.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | Post the RBI Monetary policy, we have managed to reverse precisely from a key support zone and if global markets support, we may see this relief getting extended in the coming week as well. Technically speaking, the daily time frame exhibits a ‘Bullish Engulfing’ pattern and on the weekly chart, ‘Dragonfly Doji’ is clearly visible. Importantly, Nifty managed to defend the ‘20-EMA’ (on a closing basis) on the weekly chart, which is an indication of some strength. Going forward, a move beyond 17200 on a closing basis would strengthen the recovery rally. In this case, 17350 – 17500 levels cannot be ruled out. On the flip side, 16900 – 16750 has now become a sacrosanct support zone for the bulls.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | After the RBI Monetary policy, we have managed to reverse precisely from a key support zone and if global markets support, we may see this relief getting extended in the coming week as well. Technically speaking, the daily time frame exhibits a ‘Bullish Engulfing’ pattern and on the weekly chart, ‘Dragonfly Doji’ is clearly visible. The Nifty managed to defend the ‘20-EMA’ (on a closing basis) on the weekly chart, which is an indication of some strength. A move beyond 17,200 on a closing basis would strengthen the recovery rally. In this case, 17,350 – 17,500 levels cannot be ruled out. On the flip side, 16,900 – 16,750 has now become a sacrosanct support zone for the bulls.
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives, Samco Securities | With no major events expected in the following week, markets may be dominated by global news flows. US unemployment and domestic data such as manufacturing, deposits and loan growth numbers could drive investor sentiment next week. The volatility in oil prices and the strengthening of the US Dollar compared to other currencies will be other important factors that may affect the market. Investors must keep an eye out for stock-specific news.
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives, Samco Securities | With no major events expected in the following week, markets may be dominated by global news flows. US unemployment and domestic data such as manufacturing, deposits and loan growth numbers could drive investor sentiment next week. The volatility in oil prices and the strengthening of the US dollar compared to other currencies will be other important factors that may affect the market. Investors must keep an eye out for stock-specific news.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Oct 3, 2022 07:31 am