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Choppiness to remain high amid monthly expiry; Nifty may touch 16,700-16,800: Experts

Markets have been witnessing wild swings within the 15,700-16,400 range and currently trading closer to the upper band. Participants should wait for a decisive close above 16,400 to change the bias. In case of a breakout, the 16,650-16,800 zone act as a hurdle, says Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking.

May 23, 2022 / 06:40 AM IST
Mumbai,,India,-,December,19,,2018:,Old,Structure,Of,Share
Bulls took charge of the Dalal Street as Indian indices snapped a five-week losing streak, ending 3 percent higher in the highly volatile week ended May 20. BSE Sensex added 1,532.77 points (2.90 percent) to close at 54,326.39, while the Nifty50 rose 484.05 points (3.06 percent) to end at 16,266.2.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | On weekly charts, the Nifty has reclaimed 16,000 and is comfortably trading above the 10-day SMA. The reversal formation is likely to continue if the index succeeds to trade above 16,000 and above the same it could move up to 16,400. Further upside may continue, which could lift the index up to 16,550. However, below 16,000, upside would be vulnerable and the index could hit the level of 15,800-15,700.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | On the weekly charts, the Nifty has reclaimed 16,000 and is comfortably trading above the 10-day SMA. The reversal formation is likely to continue if the index succeeds to trade above 16,000 and above the same it could move up to 16,400. Further upside may continue, which could lift the index up to 16,550. However, below 16,000, upside would be vulnerable and the index could hit the level of 15,800-15,700.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | Nifty is currently far away from its 50 period and 20 period moving average. Sooner or later Nifty will revert to the mean. Minor swing high in Nifty is at 16,400. A break above 16,400 should trigger a rally to 16,650-16,700. It is likely that the Nifty may be making a significant low and a strong thrust on the upside is likely. Next week is expiry week. If Nifty manages to break above 16,400 in the early part of the week, the monthly expiry could be around 16,650-16,700. For weekly expiry trader this could be a good opportunity to be on the long side of the market.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | The Nifty is currently far away from its 50-period and 20-period moving average. Sooner or later, the Nifty will revert to the mean. Minor swing high in the Nifty is at 16,400. A break above 16,400 should trigger a rally to 16,650-16,700. It is likely that the Nifty may be making a significant low and a strong thrust on the upside is likely. Next week is expiry week. If the Nifty manages to break above 16,400 in the early part of the week, the monthly expiry could be around 16,650-16,700. For the weekly expiry trader, this could be a good opportunity to be on the long side of the market.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | Going ahead, the index is set to test upper end of a reverse falling channel & the swing high of 16,400, which is a key barrier to watch out for. On the flip side, 16,100-16,000 will act as a near term support zone.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | Going ahead, the index is set to test upper end of a reverse falling channel and the swing high of 16,400, which is a key barrier to watch out for. On the flip side, 16,100-16,000 will act as a near term support zone.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Overall we expect this volatility to continue next week as well with several macro headwinds like high inflation and aggressive interest rate hike. Also heavy FII selling continued which added to the overall pressure in the market. We suggest investors to remain focused on selective stocks in the market which are resilient on the back of strong quarterly results and positive management commentaries.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Overall, we expect this volatility to continue next week as well with several macro headwinds like high inflation and aggressive interest rate hike. Also, heavy FII selling continued, adding to the overall pressure in the market. We suggest investors to remain focused on selective stocks in the market which are resilient on the back of strong quarterly results and positive management commentaries.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | It would be important to keep a regular tab on global developments and one should certainly be prepared for surprising moves on either side. As far as sectoral participation is concerned, we witnessed some decent relief moves in most of the beaten heavyweight spaces this week. Also, the broader market has started to show some encouraging signs, which we believe should do extremely well if the market remains above the psychological support of 16,000.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | It would be important to keep a regular tab on global developments and one should certainly be prepared for surprising moves on either side. As far as sectoral participation is concerned, we witnessed some decent relief moves in most of the beaten heavyweight spaces this week. Also, the broader market has started to show some encouraging signs, which we believe should do extremely well if the market remains above the psychological support of 16,000.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | We expect choppiness to remain high due to the scheduled monthly expiry. Besides, the monsoon-related updates will also be in focus. In line with the prevailing trend, global factors viz. performance of global markets especially the US, China’s COVID update and Russia-Ukraine news will remain on participants’ radar. Markets have been witnessing wild swings within the 15,700-16,400 range and currently trading closer to the upper band. Participants should wait for a decisive close above 16,400 to change the bias. In case of a breakout, the 16,650-16,800 zone act as a hurdle. Among the sectoral indices, defensive like FMCG and pharma looks poised to surge further while others may continue to trade mix. Traders should align their positions accordingly and maintain positions on both sides.
Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking | We expect choppiness to remain high due to the scheduled monthly expiry. Besides, the monsoon-related updates will also be in focus. In line with the prevailing trend, global factors viz. performance of global markets especially the US, China’s COVID update and Russia-Ukraine news will remain on participants’ radar. Markets have been witnessing wild swings within the 15,700-16,400 range and currently trading closer to the upper band. Participants should wait for a decisive close above 16,400 to change the bias. In case of a breakout, the 16,650-16,800 zone act as a hurdle. Among the sectoral indices, defensive like FMCG and pharma looks poised to surge further while others may continue to trade mix. Traders should align their positions accordingly and maintain positions on both sides.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | Since the short term trend has now changed to sideways, the next directional move will now depend on a breakout beyond the mentioned range and hence, traders should look for either side breakout in the coming week. A move above 16,400 could then lead to a decent up move towards 16,800, while a break below 15,700 would resume the downtrend. On the bank Nifty index, the ’20 DEMA’ resistance is placed around 34,740 and a move above that is required to see a deeper pullback in the short term. Looking at this week’s movement, we advise traders to wait for a clear breakout from the above mentioned range and then trade in the direction of the breakout.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | Since the short-term trend has now changed to sideways, the next directional move will now depend on a breakout beyond the mentioned range and hence, traders should look for either side breakout in the coming week. A move above 16,400 could then lead to a decent up move towards 16,800, while a break below 15,700 would resume the downtrend. On the bank Nifty index, the '20 DEMA' resistance is placed around 34,740 and a move above that is required to see a deeper pullback in the short term. Looking at this week’s movement, we advise traders to wait for a clear breakout from the above mentioned range and then trade in the direction of the breakout.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | The volatility observed last week is expected to continue considering major economic data releases, the current earnings season, and the monthly expiry. The FOMC minutes, US GDP growth rate forecasts, and initial jobless claims will all influence global market sentiment. Back home, the data on India's Foreign Exchange Reserves, which was in the headlines for falling to a one-year low, as well as the INR/USD movement, will be keenly monitored. Markets will continue to remain bumpy, and investors should remain on the sidelines until a clear trend emerges.
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | The volatility observed last week is expected to continue considering major economic data releases, the current earnings season, and the monthly expiry. The FOMC minutes, US GDP growth rate forecasts, and initial jobless claims will all influence global market sentiment. Back home, the data on India's Foreign Exchange Reserves, which was in the headlines for falling to a one-year low, as well as the INR/USD movement, will be keenly monitored. Markets will continue to remain bumpy, and investors should remain on the sidelines until a clear trend emerges.
Rakesh Patil
first published: May 23, 2022 06:40 am
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