Wang Yi’s Delhi visit signals a thaw in Sino-India ties but meaningful progress will depend on political directions of leaders’

The assessment from both nations is that this has been a positive visit which has resulted in concrete steps to stabilize India-China relations and clear the diplomatic nettles for Modi to visit China in end August for the SCO (Shanghai Summit Organization) summit.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is also expected to attend the summit in Tianjin and given the current geo-political turbulence triggered by US President Donald Trump – the SCO summit tea-leaves will be studied closely.

Small steps forward

The major takeaways from the Wang visit include some progress on border management post-Galwan and an agreement regarding resumption of flights and trade.

Wang came to Delhi wearing two hats – that of FM and the SR (Special Representative) with the latter position having been created to address the complex and tangled territorial / border issue. In this role Wang met with NSA (National Security Adviser) Ajit Doval, the Indian SR for the border talks.

Three major action points related to the border problem have been listed in the Indian MEA statement, which is based on the premise that both sides need to take a political perspective of the overall bilateral relationship while seeking a “fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable framework” for settlement of the boundary question in accordance with the Agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for Settlement of the India-China Boundary Question signed in 2005.

Four decades of trying to patch up

India and China engaged in a brief but bloody border war in October 1962 over a contested territorial-cum-border dispute and this coincided with the Cuban missile crisis between the U.S. and the former USSR. From 1962 to 1988 the bilateral relationship was in the deep freeze and the first thaw began during the visit of then Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi to China in December 1988. The handshake with Chinese supremo Deng Xiaoping is recalled as the symbol of an elusive goal: Sino-Indian amity that would transform global geo-politics.

At the time, the Beijing official statement noted of the Rajiv Gandhi visit: “Premier Li Peng stated China's principled position on the boundary issue and stressed that to act in the spirit of mutual understanding and mutual accommodation is the only way to resolve this issue. The two sides agreed to settle the boundary issue through peaceful and friendly consultation. It was agreed that at the same time seeking a solution to the boundary issue acceptable to both sides.”

The territorial dispute was sought to be addressed beginning in 1993, followed by agreements and protocols of 1996, 2005, 2012 and now in 2025, and the language and formulation is much the same.  Acknowledging and respecting ‘mutuality’ of interests but the final goal still remains elusive and bilateral border talks remain a work in progress – talks that went into stasis after Galwan.

What comes next depends on political direction from the leaders

The latest agreement is a sign of slender but notable progress – the setting up of different groups, expert and working - and much will depend on the political directions given by the two leader, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi.

The fine print of the proposed template for the western sector along the LAC and the manner in which this will be applied to the eastern and central sectors will need to be studied in an objective and rigorous manner by Delhi for the long-term implications and a bipartisan consensus reached in the Indian domestic political context. Currently this also appears elusive.

The Trump effect

The Trump tariffs and related turbulence have soured India-US relations and this may have provided some impetus for the visible thaw in Delhi-Beijing ties but in the long run, both nations will proceed cautiously in managing their trade and security relations with a fickle Washington.  

The long-term objective for India and China after the Wang visit has been stated as: “Both sides agreed to uphold multilateralism, enhance communication on major international and regional issues, maintain a rules-based multilateral trading system with WTO at its core, and promote a multipolar world, that safeguards the interest of developing countries.”

This is a worthy goal but for now China holds more cards than India and Delhi will have to move with caution and perspicacity as the subaltern interlocutor. Opacity, optics and prioritizing domestic electoral compulsions should not shape India’s foreign policy choices.