After months of speculation, posturing and shadow-boxing over whether the Congress high command could muster enough courage to ask Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah to relinquish his post in favour of his deputy as well as arch rival DK Shivakumar midway through his term, the battle lines have clearly been drawn: It is no longer “whether” the Congress leadership will pop the question, but “when.”
In the last couple of weeks there has been a flurry of activity: Party general secretary in charge of Karnataka, Randeep Singh Surjewala rushing to Bengaluru twice and meeting almost every one of 136 Congress MLAs, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge stating that the “high command” (meaning, the Gandhi troika of Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka) is seized of the matter and they will take a decision (on leadership issue) and the two dramatis personae, Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar themselves repeatedly voicing their positions, indications are that it is all in the open now.
The cacophony of the rival camps speaking in support of their respective leaders has also grown louder, defying the central leadership’s gag order. Surjewala, the man sent from Delhi to enforce discipline among the MLAs and halt the debate, at least for the time being, has also changed his stance from, “No question of change of leadership” to “everyone can have ambitions. I don’t want to say anything more.”
Ambiguity over power sharing
The whole confusion stems from the fact that the Congress high command, after the party’s resounding victory in the May 2023 Assembly elections, failed to clearly delineate the ‘power sharing formula’ between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. Though the election results were declared on May 13, 2023, it took the party five full days to resolve the bitter fight between the two strongmen who had contributed in almost equal measure to the electoral success.
Shivakumar, the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president since 2020, and who had won his eighth term to the Assembly, insisted that he should be made chief minister going by the past precedents of KPCC chiefs ‘automatically’ being given the honour. But Siddaramaiah, the ‘mass leader’ refused to yield ground. On the night of May 17, KC Venugopal put a call through to Sonia Gandhi holidaying in Himachal Pradesh and she reportedly convinced Shivakumar to accept the deputy chief minister’s post as Siddaramaiah was a senior leader.
While making an announcement to the media the next day, Venugopal was pointedly asked whether there was any power sharing agreement which had been worked out. He evaded a direct reply and merely said, “We are sharing power with the people of Karnataka.” Since then, Shivakumar has tried to assert that he had bargained for a 50:50 formula and the moment Siddaramaiah completes two-and-a-half years of his second term as chief minister, he (Shivakumar) should be rewarded for his “sacrifice and contribution” to the party’s growth in the state.
Two ‘pressure points’
Though Siddaramaiah remains adamant on completing his five-year term and lead the party to another victory in 2028 elections before handing over power to Shivakumar, he would be aware of two immediate ‘pressure points’ to step down as chief minister.
The heightened activity of the Shivakumar camp to get more and more MLAs to openly articulate the ‘need for change’ is aimed at forcing the issue by the third week of November when Siddaramaiah would be completing 30 months or half of his term in power.
In the last few days alone, Iqbal Hussain, MLA from Ramanagara and CP Yogeshwar, MLA from Channapatna have been followed rather surprisingly, by a veteran like Tanveer Sait, MLA from Mysuru district (Siddaramaiah’s home place) who have spoken of the need for ‘a new face to emerge’ and backed Shivakumar’s claim as just and deserving.
If the pressure to leave the CM’s gaddi mounts, Siddaramaiah could possibly pull out another card from his pocket and seek time till the third week of January 2026. History shows that Karnataka’s eighth chief minister D Devaraj Urs holds two records: He was the first to complete a full five-year term and he still remains the longest serving chief minister of Karnataka (across two terms) of seven years and 248 days.
During his first tenure as chief minister between 2013 and 2018, Siddaramaiah became the first in 33 years to equal Urs’ record of an uninterrupted five-year term, which 14 chief ministers who preceded him had failed to do. Now, in his second term, which began in May 2023, he could be looking forward to ‘snatch’ another record for the longest service as CM from Urs, if he stays in power till the third week of January 2026.
But, in the absence of an overwhelming support for Shivakumar and many of his senior colleagues urging Siddaramaiah to continue for the sake of stability, there is no guarantee that Siddaramaiah will voluntarily vacate his seat.
In fact, seniors like G Parameshwar, Satish Jarkiholi, MB Patil, RV Deshpande, KJ George and Zameer Ahmed have steadfastly stood behind Siddaramaiah and they have no love lost for Shivakumar.
Shadow of scandals
What could potentially tilt the balance against Siddaramaiah at any point of time is any adverse ruling from the court regarding a couple of ‘corruption scandals’ faced by him personally and by his government.
The “MUDA land allotment case” in which he has been accused of misusing his official position to enrich his wife with 14 prime sites in Mysuru valued at Rs 56 crore is being investigated by the Lokayukta. In another case involving MUDA (Mysuru Urban Developement Authority), the Enforcement Directorate has unearthed an alleged Rs 400 crore scam regarding benami land transactions and impounded land worth Rs 100 crore so far and it allegedly involves many politicians and government officials.
Last week, the Karnataka High Court handed over to the CBI the Rs 89 crore swindling and money laundering case involving the Valmiki ST Development Corporation, which surfaced last year and led to the resignation of V Nagendra, a minister in the Siddaramaiah government. It could potentially drag in the chief minister as well as he had defended the minister as being ‘innocent.’
If Siddaramaiah is found to be at “fault” in either the MUDA or the Valmiki case he may be forced to step down, paving the way for Shivakumar to take over as chief minister. Till then, Shivakumar will have his fingers crossed.
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