Ram Mandir inauguration and the effect on voters

The BJP hopes that the Ram Mandir effect would help the party retain most of the seats it won in the Hindi heartland in 2019

The build-up to the pran pratishtha of Ram Mandir on 22nd of January has created a lot of buzz all over India. BJP and Sangh Parivar affiliate outfits are organising kalash yatras across the country. From January 25 to March 25, BJP cadre will identify and help people who wish to visit Ram Lalla by making the necessary arrangements.

BJP hopes the excitement would help it cross the 50 percent vote share mark and the 400+ seats target beating Rajiv Gandhi’s record of 1984. So can the Mandir inauguration reap electoral dividends for BJP?

Ideologically Aligned Voters

Critics argue that this issue largely impacts hardcore, ideologically aligned supporters of the party, who anyway would have voted for BJP. They claim this may not have any significant impact on the neutral, swing and opposition voters. Hence it may not add to the vote share of BJP in 2024 as it is anticipating.

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The construction of Ram Mandir, along with abrogation of Article 370 and implementation of the Uniform Civil Code have been long term ideological goals of the BJP, its parent Bharatiya Jan Sangh and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

As the party fulfills one of its long pending promises, this could lead to an increase in turnout of its core support base filled with excitement and enthusiasm. This would help the BJP consolidate support among its traditional voters adding to its total votes and vote share.

According to the Unified Hindu Vote Theory,  if the BJP manages to get half of the Hindu community votes, it translates into 40 percent vote share at national level, as Hindus account for almost 80 percent of the population. In a multi-party system with regional parties on an aggregate securing 49 percent vote share on an average since 1952, a 40 percent vote share means BJP would never lose any election.

Retaining Hindi Heartland

The inauguration is most likely to result in more votes and seats in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 MPs to Lok Sabha. BJP’s tally had declined to 62 (-9) in 2019, and the party could claw back these lost seats.

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The Ram Mandir effect would also help the party retain most of the seats it won in the Hindi heartland in 2019, thus neutralising losses due to being maxed out. Finally, a positive impact on neutral voters cannot be ruled out amid the mood of piety and celebration, which will go towards helping BJP retain many of its “neutral” voters.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.