Rajya Sabha Elections: Congress shoots itself in Himachal Pradesh, BJP dents SP in UP

The Congress government, which now has the support of 34 MLAs out of 68 in the Himachal house, now is on tenterhooks.

The BJP has given a jolt to the Opposition in Himachal and Uttar Pradesh Rajya Sabha elections winning a seat each despite not having numbers on their side. Ahead of the 2024 elections, the optics aren’t good for the Opposition whose inability to keep their flock together is evident for all to see. The cross voting in Himachal putting the only Congress government in North India at risk is an added bonus for BJP.

At a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been talking about his third term being one of big decisions, the BJP is cognisant of the fact that it needs a majority in Rajya Sabha. Post these polls, NDA numbers stand at 117 in a House of 245.

The elections to 15 seats in UP, HP and Karnataka were necessitated as the BJP put up extra candidates in all these states. In UP it put up an eighth candidate, supported a fifth candidate (of ally JDS) in Karnataka, and in Himachal it forced a contest for the lone seat despite INC having higher support.

Himachal: Sukhu Vs Virbhadra Family 

In Himachal, six MLAs of Congress and three Independent MLAs/smaller parties backing the government cross-voted in favour of the BJP candidate making it a tie at first preference votes level, 34 each. In a draw of lots lady luck smiled on Harsh Mahajan while bringing disappointment for noted lawyer Abhishek Manu Singhvi.

There have been rumblings within the Himachal Congress for a while. The Virbhadra Singh family’s faction was unhappy with the appointment of Sukhwinder Sukhu as CM of the state. Vikramaditya Singh, son of ex CM Virbhadra Singh, who has resigned as a state minister had earlier defied Congress directions and attended the inauguration ceremony of the Ram Mandir. Many veteran MLAs including Rajendra Rana who defeated PK Dhumal, were not made ministers which started the rebellion.

There was also resentment at making Singhvi (an outsider) the candidate. BJP played this ‘Outsider versus Insider’ narrative to the hilt. In fact, BJP’s candidate Harish Mahajan was a confidante and advisor of Virbhadra Singh.

The Rajya Sabha elections witnessed some really poor strategy, on the part of Congress. Sonia Gandhi could have been fielded from Himachal. She carries heft and may have been able to prevent cross voting while Singhvi could have easily won from Rajasthan.

Sukhu and other leaders of Congress need to take lessons from the Siddaramaiah and DK Shivkumar jodi in Karnataka who ensured a BJP MLA cross voted and another one abstained during voting.

The Congress government, which now has the support of 34 MLAs out of 68 in the Himachal house, now is on tenterhooks. BJP has approached the Governor and asked for a trust vote. We could even see a change of guard in the Congress to save the government.

UP: Excessive P-D-A Focus SP’s Undoing

In UP, at least seven MLAs of SP seem to have cross voted and one abstained. This comes after a string of setbacks for the SP in UP. Post the state polls in 2022, OP Rajbhar’s SBSP has left the Akhilesh led alliance (six MLAs) followed by Jayant Chaudhary led RLD (nine MLAs). As a consolation two MLAs of SBSP cross voted in favour of SP candidates.

SP didn’t have the numbers to win a third seat. With 37 first preference votes required to win, the SP and the Congress were short by 1 vote for the third candidate (110 vs 111 required). Its efforts to woo Raja Bhaiyya didn’t work.

There have been rumblings in the SP for some time now, especially amongst the upper caste MLAs at Akhilesh Yadav rejecting the invitation to the Ram Mandir inauguration. A section of MLAs were unhappy at the repeated renomination of Jaya Bachchan from UP, which suggests Akhilesh isn’t keyed into the churning within his own party.

Of the MLAs who have cross-voted, majority are from the upper caste, perhaps peeved at the excessive focus of SP on PDA - pichda, dalit and alpasankhyak, with the agda (forward caste) being left out of the equation.

At a time when Rahul Gandhi has been playing the caste census card to the hilt, this backlash from the upper castes is a worry for the INDIA bloc ahead of 2024 general elections.

To conclude, this episode of cross voting does indicate a need for debate on the fact whether a conscience vote should be allowed in Rajya Sabha elections? Or should the MLAs follow the whip/diktat of the party and leadership?

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.