Prime Minister Narender Modi is visiting Germany, Denmark and France at a time when the Ukraine issue continues to occupy the attention of most European leaders. He will participate in the sixth India-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations, in Berlin. Apart from bilateral meetings in Copenhagen, he will also participate in the second India-Nordic Summit where leaders of all five Nordic nations viz. Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland will join. In Paris, he will briefly meet newly re-elected President Emmanuel Macron.
Since these European nations and India have different perceptions about the Ukraine war, Modi is likely to concentrate on a bilateral agenda. A new, positive momentum created during United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s India visit will also be felt during Modi’s Europe tour. There is a new optimism for both India-UK and India-European Union trade agreements. Without naming Russia, Modi may also talk about cessation of hostilities, diplomacy and dialogue, and killing of civilians in Ukraine.
Apart from trade, investment, and technology, these nations are also important for India’s ambitious clean energy transition. Together with France, India launched the International Solar Alliance (ISA). New Delhi has established a green strategic partnership with Denmark. Germany is also trying to be a leader in green technologies. Under Energiewende, a national transition to a low carbon and renewable energy supply, Germany is not only transforming its energy sector, but the whole economy.
During his meetings with business leaders in Germany and Denmark, Modi is likely to highlight India’s strong post-COVID-19 recovery, all-time high exports in goods and services as well as newly-signed FTAs with Australia and the United Arab Emirates.
Germany, and France now constitute more than 40 percent of the EU economy. Both are central to the European integration project. Impact of recent elections in both the countries will be felt in Europe in the years to come. For a generation, Angela Merkel was an undisputed leader of Germany and Europe. She also managed German relations with Russia and China in a pragmatic manner.
Under Macron, France is likely to take over some of the German leadership roles in Europe. Since India has strong strategic partnerships with both, this is unlikely to have any major impact on our bilateral ties with Europe. Although Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party (SPD) were in a coalition in the Merkel government, Greens and Free Democrats have come back to government after many years. So the visit will be useful to work out a new agenda with Germany for the next few years.
The German economic model is largely based on exports, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Automobiles, chemicals, metals, electrical equipment, high-precision equipment, pharmaceuticals, retail trade, and healthcare are some of its leading sectors. Although the services sector contributes more than 70 percent of the economy, manufacturing exports are still key to its economic development. For years, Germany has been pushing for India-EU trade agreement and will be pleased with new optimism and the launch of EU-India Trade and Technology Council.
With altogether 25 million-plus population, the five Nordic countries are perhaps the best governed countries in the world. These countries are at the top in human development index, happiness index, innovation index, freedom of speech, and transparency. It is not just that they are prosperous and innovative; they are more equal than many other western countries. They are also seriously working on green technologies to check Climate Change.
In the last few years, India is looking at the region systematically. The attempt has been to link Nordic solutions to Indian flagship programmes. But many of these solutions have also emerged in a socio-political environment which is genuinely free, gender sensitive, egalitarian, and citizens have high trust in the government.
Indians continue to receive the largest number of EU Blue Cards meant to attract high-skilled professionals to Europe. Germany has issued the largest number of Blue Cards within the EU, and more than one-fourth of these cards have been issued to Indians. New Delhi has already signed a migration and mobility agreement with France. A movement on a similar agreement with Germany is possible during the visit.
Public statements on the Indo-Pacific are also likely. But the European approach to the Indo-Pacific is slightly different than India’s. They also want to deal with the China issue in a different manner. The centrality of the Indian narrative on the Indo-Pacific is to build forums and platforms to balance the impact of assertive China. In European understanding China is very much part of the Indo-Pacific.
Gulshan Sachdeva is Professor at the Centre for European Studies and Coordinator, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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