Viju Cherian
The Congress is going the extra mile to ensure that political parties that oppose the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are on the same side of the political divide that’s defining the contours of the upcoming Lok Sabha election. This is a positive development, and much of it depends on how the Congress approaches the delicate issue of coalition and seat-sharing. If things go according to plan, it could spice up the 2019 election.
A strong opposition is important for a healthy democracy. Over the past four years, there have been efforts to unite the opposition parties, but they have been sporadic and delivered mixed results. For example, if in 2017 the Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance in Uttar Pradesh failed to live up to the hype and expectations, in 2018 the Congress-Janata Dal(Secular) alliance in Karnataka showed how tactful post-poll alliances could form the government.
The much-talked about Mahagathbandhan, the grand pre-poll coalition of opposition parties, has fallen off the political radar, and this will benefit the Congress. The focus has now shifted to tacit pre-poll agreements where major decisions, such as that of the prime ministerial candidate, will be taken after the election. The assembly polls to five states in November and December is also a testing ground for this united opposition.
On Monday, in an interview to News18, Congress leader and former Union minister P Chidambaram said, “We never said we want Rahul Gandhi to be prime minister. When few Congressmen were talking about it, the AICC intervened and stop such talk… We want an alliance to be formed. The prime minister will be decided by the alliance partners after the election."
Chidambaram’s comment on the Congress not projecting a PM candidate before the polls is a stand the party has been maintaining for some time now. Nevertheless, it sends out an important message — that among the anti-BJP parties, the grand old party does not see itself as the first among equals.
At many levels, it is a prudent move by the Congress to sidestep the question about the party’s PM candidate. Electorally, the Congress is not in a position to call the shots in a united opposition. At different times, almost every regional party leader in the opposition has expressed desire to become PM. The Congress naming a candidate would have further muddied the waters. It is a different fact that coalitions which are not anchored by either the BJP or the Congress do not have a respectable track record. No such coalition has completed a full term in office.
Most importantly, by refusing to name Rahul Gandhi as its PM candidate, the Congress has avoided turning the 2019 elections into a presidential one, and thus getting boxed into a corner of a ring that suits the BJP. If one were to take opinion polls and surveys at face value, some show that Modi’s popularity is dipping. However, he is still the most popular national leader in India today. In such a scenario, a Gandhi-Modi contest is a foregone conclusion.
The question that then remains is, after the 2019 election, if the Congress has a respectable number of seats among opposition allies, will Rahul Gandhi throw his hat into the ring? It will be interesting to see how senior leaders and former ministers in the united opposition react to such a claim if and when it is made. It gets trickier because Rahul Gandhi is yet to hold public office. He missed a golden opportunity during the UPA 2 government, where under the leadership of Manmohan Singh, Gandhi could have proved his mettle.
For now, the Congress is sensitive to ground realities where electorally it would not be a wise move to name a PM candidate. It is showing political astuteness and is receptive to the sensitivities of its allies. It is the Congress’ effort to keep the flickering lamp in the opposition camp lit.
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