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Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | The oil ghost is back to haunt India

In today’s edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: Burning midnight oil over oil, litmus test for government bond paper, Ashok Leyland revving up the engine, Monsoon Watch, twists and turns for investors, the China trade puzzle and much more

June 28, 2021 / 03:46 PM IST

Dear Reader,

The Panorama newsletter is sent to Moneycontrol Pro subscribers on market days. It offers easy access to stories published on Moneycontrol Pro and gives a little extra by setting out a context or an event or trend that investors should keep track of.

Oil prices are holding near $76 a barrel as recovery from COVID-19 in many countries is leading to resurgent demand for fuels. Supply, however, has stayed pat so far as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained output.

The OPEC+ (which includes other oil producers like Russia) grouping is meeting on Thursday to consider production targets starting from August. Analysts are expecting the group to raise supplies. The quantum of the raise is a key question. While the consensus seems to suggest that it will raise output by 500,000 barrels per day, some analysts opine that nothing short of one million barrels per day will cool prices.

The revival of a nuclear deal between Iran and P5+1 (the US, the UK, China, France, Russia and Germany) which will allow the former to export crude will also weigh on oil prices in the coming days.


Rising crude prices, of course, are not a good sign for India with its heavy import dependence and increasing inflation. No wonder then it has requested OPEC+ to raise supplies. But a smarter way to lower retail fuel prices is to cut taxes, one of our columnists argues here.

Rising inflation will also make it harder for the Reserve Bank of India to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy. As it is, the central bank is going to extremes to keep the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond anchored around 6 percent. Is this security any longer the true benchmark, we ask. Read more here.

Do check out these investing insights from our research team:

Ashok Leyland -- In a sweet spot to ride the economic recovery

IFGL Refractories: Fortunes tied to steel cycle

Bodal Chemicals: Benzene benefit to show up from FY24

What else are we reading today?

PharmEasy is just what the doctor ordered for Thyrocare

Ties with China — Contradiction in confrontation

Monsoon Watch 2021: signs of normalisation

Rising market uncertainties to test investors

(Republished from the FT)

Technical picks : ICICI Bank, PI Industries, SBI and IRCTC

These are published every trading day before markets open and can be read on the app)


Ravi Krishnan

Moneycontrol Pro
Ravi Krishnan is deputy executive editor at Moneycontrol
first published: Jun 28, 2021 02:07 pm

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