Maharashtra | BJP’s scripts a political thriller with a twist in the tale

BJP's Devendra Fadnavis and Shiv Sena's Uddhav Thackeray (Image - NW18 Creative)

During the 2019 assembly election campaign, then Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis was so confident of his government's performance that he came out with a Marathi slogan: ‘Me punha yein’ (I'll be back (as CM)). It was so widely used that when the Shiv Sena parted ways with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after 30 years to shake hands with arch rivals Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress, Fadnavis was mocked in memes and jokes.

The same slogan was again used to mock Fadnavis when he had to resign a few days after a rather controversial early morning swearing-in ceremony in November 2019 with NCP's Ajit Pawar as his deputy.

The ‘Me punha yein’ slogan made yet another comeback, but this time it was not to mock Fadnavis. It made a comeback when more than two-third of Shiv Sena MLAs rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray as he desperately tried to hold on to the Chief Minister’s post.

On June 29, after the Supreme Court refused to stop the floor test in the Maharashtra assembly and Thackeray resigned in the absence of numbers on his side, Fadnavis’ slogan rang true.

Well-scripted Strategy

However, on June 30, Fadnavis surprised everyone when he named rebel Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde — who led the rebellion against Thackeray — as the new Chief Minister while opting out of office. Fadnavis emphasised that it was done to honour the memory of late Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray who would have loved to see an ordinary ‘Shiv Sainik’ in the chief minister’s chair. BJP chief JP Nadda appealed to Fadnavis to reconsider his decision and join the new government as Deputy Chief Minister. Without much delay, Fadnavis accepted the BJP's leadership's ‘appeal’.

As many suspected, it emerged that this twist in the tale was actually a well-scripted strategy of the BJP. Hence, as not appearing to be ‘lusting of power’, Shinde, and not Fadnavis, had to be the new face of a revived alliance. The BJP’s biggest achievement in this is that it has not only avenged Thackeray's 2019 ‘betrayal’ by breaking the alliance, but has cast serious doubt over Uddhav Thackeray’s claim to be the rightful inheritor of Bal Thackeray's legacy.

Under a Maratha leader like Shinde, the old Shiv Sena brand of Hindutva stood resurrected as well as tempered by the BJP's own ideological USP. More importantly for the BJP and Shiv Sena, this comes ahead of crucial civic elections in Mumbai, Pune, and other cities by the end of 2022.

These polls are to also lay the ground for the 2024 parliamentary and assembly elections. The Shiv Sena rebels had cited the party leadership’s divergence from Hindutva under the Maha Vikas Aghadi experiment as the sole reason for breaking ranks with Uddhav Thackeray.

For the BJP it was important to be seen as helping the Shiv Sena for the cause of Hindutva. That meant Fadnavis and the BJP eat the frog without delay so that during the July 18 presidential elections the NDA’s candidate Draupadi Murmu got more votes than her rivals.

The BJP’s critics allege that a hugely reluctant Fadnavis had to swallow his honour to accept a post under Shinde. They should be wary of underestimating Fadnavis, because the BJP's attempt is to kill several birds by making Shinde Chief Minister.

One, the BJP's ideological mentor, the RSS, had always been opposed to the Shiv Sena being in the company of the NCP and the Congress. Second, the BJP could erase the impression of being a party lusting for power, and that is why it aided the Shiv Sena rebels. Third, Fadnavis' return as Chief Minister would have boosted Uddhav Thackeray and other BJP's rivals who were out with a new narrative that Fadnavis’ craze for power was the sole cause for the shenanigans of the Shiv Sena rebels.

Also, within the BJP there exists a section of influential leaders who think Fadnavis (as a Brahmin) is not the best bet, and even blame his obstinacy for the BJP-Shiv Sena split in 2019.

Lastly, by refusing the CM’s post, the BJP has blunted Uddhav Thackeray’s allegation that he was backstabbed by the Shiv Sena rebels at the behest of the BJP which wanted to bring “Balasaheb's son down”.

By stepping aside for Shinde, the BJP had fulfilled Bal Thackeray’s vision of ensuring a ‘Shiv Sainik’ as Chief Minister. Above all, the BJP felt that Shinde would get a force multiplier as Chief Minister at a time when the question about who is the real Shiv Sena is yet to be settled. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde would easily consolidate his position and attract those MLAs who are still loyal to Uddhav Thackeray.

The BJP can claim that it has joined hands with the real Shiv Sena, thereby further discrediting Uddhav Thackeray. The rebel MLAs will not be tempted to leave the BJP alliance now that it is a crucial part of the government.
Finally, Shinde as Chief Minister will take the brunt of anti-incumbency issues over the last two-and-a-half years, which would have otherwise fallen on Fadnavis' shoulder. In any case, as Deputy CM, Fadnavis' clout will be no less than that of the Chief Minister.