Jharkhand Political Crisis: Can Champai Soren hold the JMM together?

Two, BJP tried to dislodge Hemant in September 2022 but failed. It would be naïve to believe that BJP would not trigger a coup to dislodge Champai's government as well, especially when it is largely dependent on 17 Congress MLAs out of the total UPA contingent size of 47 in an 82 member Assembly. Opposition NDA has 32 MLAs with nearly double the vote share – 33 percent – of JMM. Even though BJP's vote share in 2019 Assembly poll was more than JMM and Congress together, the saffron party got fewer seats than JMM.

Three, BJP has almost equal if not more support of the tribal groups. So an overarching ‘tribal solidarity’ from all major tribal groups (Santhal, Munda, Ho, Oraon) backing the Sorens, who largely represent the Santhals, is not a reality. Perhaps the ‘tribal solidarity’ myth took shape after 2017, when the BJP government brought two bills – Chhotanagpur Tenancy Act (CNTA) and the Santhal Parganas Tenancy Act (SPTA) – to allow commercial use of tribal land. It united the tribes against the BJP but in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections BJP did exceedingly well, winning 56 percent voteshare, which would have required considerable tribal support too.

Finally, the Hindu revivalist movement – like the inauguration of Ram Mandir – has a significant impact on Hindus (68 percent) who overwhelmingly form the largest religious bloc. Huge in-migration from neighbouring states has changed the demographic profile in Jharkhand resulting in less dependence on tribal votes which is a minus for a tribal Chief Minister.

Champai JMM’s Best Choice

Champai Soren’s initial challenge was to ensure an appointment with the state’s Governor to produce evidence of support of nearly all 47 MLAs. Finally sworn in, Champai Soren will have to embark on his first mission to stitch a 2017-like tribal solidarity. It would be an unenviable task.

But then in the winter of 2024, Champai Soren is perhaps the best person in JMM to deal with the itchy factors. His primary advantage is that he does not belong to the first family of Jharkhand and yet played a significant role in the Jharkhand Movement which gathered momentum in the 1970s. The movement led to formation of a separate state in 2000 and the Santhal leader from south Jharkhand’s Singhbhum region contributed impressively to the movement. Moreover, as of now corruption charges have not surfaced against the 68-year old politician. There are other positives.

Despite being a pro-resistance leader who in critical points stood with his people, Champai is the go-to person of the industry lobby of Jharkhand. The industrialists believe, unlike other pro-resistance leaders Champai Soren is open to dialogue, understands the developmental significance of using mineral resources and was flexible enough to serve as a Minister in both former Chief Minister Arjun Munda and Hemant’s Cabinet. His experience to deal with both radicals – which includes Naxals in his turf in south Jharkhand – and the business chambers, is perhaps one reason why he asked to “tamper down” the protest after Hemant’s arrest to maintain law and order being aware that lawlessness would contribute to imposition of President’s rule.

Being a six term MLA from Saraikela in the south, Champai has underscored that he can win in all seasons. However, he failed to win in Lok Sabha in 2009 and 2019 yet he is considered as a people’s leader who is the only one to keep the house of MLAs with divergent interests together.

Suvojit Bagchi is a Kolkata-based journalist who previously worked with Ananda Bazar Patrika, BBC World Service and The Hindu. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.