Japan and South Korea look to the future, for a change

Japan and Korea are faced with new challenges of an increasingly aggressive China, a nuclear-armed North Korea and a world where another war feels gradually more possible. (Source: Bloomberg)

The leaders of Japan and South Korea arrive at Camp David on Friday for a historic trilateral summit this weekend with relations between the US’s two most important allies in Asia at a new dawn.

Ties between Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Yoon Suk Yeol have improved at a scarcely believable clip in the past five months, ever since the two countries reached a deal to put grievances over forced wartime labor behind them. A flurry of meetings — beers in Tokyo, bomb shots in Seoul and an invite to the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima — have brought the leaders closer than Washington could have hoped.

Just days after the countries recognised (in very different ways) the anniversary of the end of World War II, Kishida and Yoon will meet with US President Joe Biden not to retread the bitter memories of Japan’s occupation of its neighbor or discuss some new apology for the war, but to confront the far more pressing issues they both face now: an increasingly aggressive China, a nuclear-armed North Korea and a world where another war feels gradually more possible.

But here’s the thing about dawns: Inevitably, they lead again to nightfall. The three heads of state must ensure that this rapprochement can survive.

Together with Washington, Tokyo and Seoul “have moved from addressing difficult and sensitive issues of history to an increasingly ambitious and affirmative agenda,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week. Yoon deserves the credit: He took the politically risky decision to restore ties with Japan without demanding some new gesture of apology. That’s paved the way for the nations to normalise diplomatic and trade ties. But a majority of the public opposes it; his critics deemed it the “most humiliating moment” in the country’s history.

Even in its own self-interest, Japan must find a way to reciprocate and ensure Yoon gets something from the detente. However, that should not come in the form of apologies or retreads of history: Yoon has boldly separated his country’s economic and political future from backward-looking demands for recompense and regret. Even if some issues remain unresolved, the two countries need to unlink their shared pasts and futures.

Though Yoon deserves the plaudits that will accompany a successful summit (at least in Tokyo and Washington, if not at home), success will, ironically, only be confirmed if this thaw can outlast him. The leaders are all too aware of what tends to happen historically: a change of leadership in Seoul, a return to a focus on prior feuds and more distrust on both sides.

That’s what happened to the “final and irreversible” 2015 agreement
on comfort women, a euphemism for those trafficked to army brothels during Imperial Japan’s occupation, which the government of Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, swiftly abandoned. It gummed up the gears of relations for years, with the nations engaging in tit-for-tat trade disputes.

Biden’s presence has helped provide a backdrop of stability that is a marked difference to his predecessor’s haphazard foreign policy in Asia. But there’s a real chance that Donald Trump might return to the White House, bringing one or both of his “fire and fury” or “love letter” approaches to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Yoon’s presidency runs until 2027, but he’s limited to this one term; and though the Japanese public admires how Kishida has handled the South Korea matter, his domestic support is flagging. While personal ties between leaders are important, this relationship must survive once the three men have departed office.

Despite what Beijing’s mouthpieces might say, there’s no talk of forming an Asian NATO just yet. The steps likely to be announced this weekend are tamer, such as making the summit an annual event and setting up a three-way hotline between Japan, South Korea and the US. China will be critical of any statement the nations issue, but it “will work very hard to try to engage both Korea and Japan to balance US diplomacy,” Victor Cha, the senior vice president for Asia at the Center for Strategic & International Studies think tank, said at a recent press briefing.

But as the latest US steps to restrict investment in Chinese tech firms show, the world is being drawn ever further into opposing camps. Yoon might pitch his country as a “global pivot state” that can maintain smoother relations with China than others, but tough choices are looming, including US chip restrictions on Beijing. As Seoul’s Indo-Pacific strategy released last year shows, it is moving closer to the broader Asian stance articulated by Japan and the US. The three countries will likely expand their cooperation across Southeast Asia.

That leaves much ground to cover this weekend. The leaders will discuss their cooperation on Ukraine and a new world of supply chains. A possible
North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile test ahead of or during the summit might focus thoughts on how to deal with Pyongyang’s threat. But for once, it’s not the past that’s on the agenda. That’s reason enough to be optimistic.

Gearoid Reidy is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Japan and the Koreas. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.

Credit: Bloomberg