The Assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, scheduled for September/October 2024, should not be seen as mere state assembly elections. The outcomes will have a larger impact on the country’s politics. These elections will be the first test of the BJP’s electoral strength in both states and will also influence electoral alliances in other states, particularly Maharashtra, which will go to polls in the coming months. The nature of electoral alliance to some extent will also shape the political mood of the voters of Maharashtra, which in turn would also impact the electoral prospects of different parties/alliances. A victory for BJP in Haryana would reaffirm its electoral strength there, while a win in Jammu and Kashmir would endorse the central government’s policies, including the abrogation of Article 370. However, can the BJP retain power in Haryana and emerge as a formidable force in Jammu and Kashmir?
The forthcoming elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir are going to be tough for the BJP, it would find it difficult to defeat the INDIA alliance partners in respective states. I would like to offer a few reasons for why I think BJP faces a tough battel in these two states.
Poll Prospect For BJP and INDIA in Haryana
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP did not perform very well in both these states. In Haryana the BJP managed to win 5 out of 10 Lok Sabha seats with 46.1% votes while Congress managed to snatch the remaining 5 Lok Sabha seats and polled 43.7% votes. The BJP’s vote share declined by 12% from 58% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while Congress added 15.3% votes to its 28.4% votes in 2019. This shift in votes during last five years is a clear indication of which way the wind is blowing in Haryana. It is also important to note that when assembly elections were held in Haryana in 2019, barely few months after the Lok Sabha polls, BJP did not perform as well as it expected. It won only 40 of the 90 assembly seats with 36.5% of the vote falling short of a majority mark. The voters of Haryana who had voted for the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, decided to vote differently when they needed to elect their state government. This trend could repeat in 2024, with voters potentially shifting their preferences again.
BJP’s vote share declined sharply in the 2019 Assembly elections compared to the Lok Sabha elections. The chances of BJP’s further loosing votes in 2024 assembly elections compared to 2024 Lok Sabha elections seems probable. When BJP was defending its state government in Haryana in 2019, it was facing a five-year anti-incumbency. Now in 2024, the BJP would be defending its 10-year old government, the anti-incumbency sentiments are likely to be much higher this time. The replacement of Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini ahead of 2024 elections suggests acceptance of people’s unhappiness with the current government. This change, along with the continued negative mood, is likely to harm the BJP’s prospects in Haryana.
BJP’s reliance on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity will also be on test in Haryana. Evidence suggests that the BJP is able to pull votes on Narendra Modi’s face much more in Lok Sabha elections compared to Assembly elections. The BJP faces another challenge as Rahul Gandhi seems to have emerged far more popular in Haryana now compared to 2019. According to a Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey, Rahul Gandhi was the preferred PM choice for 30% voters (up from 15% in 2019) while Narendra Modi was the preferred choice for PM amongst 32% people of Haryana. Modi’s declining popularity (57% in 2019) can also have an adverse impact on BJP’s ability to pull votes in Haryana Assembly elections 2024, while Rahul Gandhi’s increased popularity will certainly help the Congress.
Poll Prospect For BJP and INDIA in J&K
Although the BJP won two Lok Sabha seats in Jammu region, and polled 24.4% votes, but the very fact that BJP did not contest elections for all the 6 Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir is a testimony of BJP’s week presence in the region. The findings of the Lokniti-CSDS post poll survey indicates, like in Haryana, even in Jammu and Kashmir, Rahul Gandhi is a more popular choice as the PM—35% voters wanted to see Rahul Gandhi as the next PM while 27% favored Narendra Modi as the PM choice.
Clearly, the BJP faces a challenging battle in both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. A tough battle for ballot is in the offing both in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir between the BJP and Congress/INDIA alliance. Let’s wait and watch how the elections unfold in these states.
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