The political landscape of Uttar Pradesh has undergone a dramatic transformation as recent election results reveal a significant setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Despite the heightened religious fervour following the consecration of the Ram Temple in January 2024, the BJP failed to secure a victory, reminiscent of its loss in the 1993 elections.
Historical Parallels: 1992 and 2024
On December 6, 1992, the Babri Mosque was demolished, an event that triggered widespread communal unrest and led to the fall of Kalyan Singh’s government in UP. The atmosphere across the state was charged with religious sentiment, and the BJP was seen as the saviour of Hindutva. However, in the subsequent 1993 elections, despite the prevailing Ram wave, the BJP was defeated by the combined force of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), marking a significant political shift. Mulayam Singh Yadav was the Chief Minister.
Fast forward to 2024, and history seems to have repeated itself. The consecration of the Ram Temple on January 22, 2024, once again stirred a wave of religious fervour across UP. Yet, four months later, the election results did not favour the BJP. By noon, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, was leading in only 35 seats, while the INDIA Bloc, a Congress-led alliance, had secured 44 seats, with others leading in one seat. This is a stark contrast to the 2019 results, where the NDA had 64 seats, the BSP 10, the SP 5, and Congress 1.
Political analysts suggest that, similar to 1993, voters in UP once again cast their ballots along caste lines rather than on the Ram Mandir issue. The BJP's ambitious slogan, "Ab ki baar 400 paar," appears to have backfired, as it fueled concerns about potential constitutional changes under a robust BJP victory. The Congress capitalized on these fears, leading to a significant surge in their support.
“The way BSP's core voters got scattered, it is very clear that Dalits this time voted for the INDIA alliance,” commented Preetam Srivastava, a political analyst.
In 2019, the BJP achieved its highest-ever vote share, winning 62 seats with many MPs securing over 50 percent of the votes. However, in the 2024 elections, the party witnessed an unexpected decline in vote percentage. Despite BJP's historical dominance in UP, having emerged as the largest party in 1991, 1996, and 1998, this election marked a notable departure from its previous successes.
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The BJP-led alliance in UP included the Rashtriya Lok Dal, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, and NISHAD Party. The INDIA Bloc comprised Congress, SP, and other influential parties, while the BSP contested the election independently.
The Madhya Pradesh Contrast
Contrastingly, the BJP maintained its dominance in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, leading in all 29 seats. “This dichotomy in the Hindi hinterland explains the local issues that dominated the election. Despite intensive campaigning by Modi and Yogi, the NDA lost 27 seats in UP,” stated Nomita P Kumar of the Giri Institute of Development Studies.
Interestingly, the BJP employed a similar strategy in both states by recruiting senior leaders from rival parties. Three months before the elections, the BJP initiated moves that saw key leaders from SP, Congress, and BSP join their ranks. In UP, over 11,000 ground-level workers joined the BJP, while in MP, the number soared to 1,12,500. This large-scale defection bolstered the BJP's grassroots support.
On April 24, in a major political coup, over 100 Congress leaders in Bhopal joined the BJP in the presence of Chief Minister Mohan Yadav. This event symbolized the BJP's growing influence in MP. "More than 90 percent of those who have joined the BJP are from Congress, with the rest coming from social organizations, retired employees and officials, and various other sectors," said Narottam Mishra, a former minister. This influx of new members significantly weakened the Congress's grassroots support in the state.
Despite the BJP's longstanding power in MP since December 2003, except for a brief Congress rule from December 2018 to July 2020, the party's strategy backfired in UP. “The BJP's strategy of absorbing opposition leaders and workers proved highly effective in MP but backfired in UP,” said Kumar.
Implications and Future Prospects
The contrasting outcomes in UP and MP highlight the complexity of regional politics in India and the varying impact of national strategies on local electorates. While the BJP's dominance in MP underscores its continued influence, the setback in UP signals a need for the party to reassess its approach in India's most populous state.
The 2024 elections in UP have underscored the enduring importance of caste dynamics over religious sentiment in electoral politics. The BJP's loss, despite the Ram Temple consecration, suggests that voters prioritized local issues and caste affiliations over broader religious narratives.
As the dust settles on this electoral cycle, the BJP faces the challenge of rebuilding its support base in UP while sustaining its momentum in other strongholds. The INDIA Bloc's success in UP indicates a potential shift in the political landscape, setting the stage for future electoral battles in one of India's most politically significant states.
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