Arvind Kejriwal realises he needs opposition backing. But will the Congress forgive and forget?

The realisation dawned following Manish Sisodia’s arrest last month. Sisodia was the deputy Chief Minister of Delhi and the second most important leader in AAP. Former AAP minister Satyendar Jain and party communications chief Vijay Nair are also currently in prison. Numerous others are being investigated for alleged corruption.

Anti-corruption was AAP’s foundational theme. Now that the party is being accused of corruption, Kejriwal is in a tough spot in politics. Kejriwal seems to have calculated that without support from the larger opposition including Congress, his party can’t withstand Centre’s onslaught.

Kejriwal has always practised equidistance from Congress and BJP but was keen to build bridges with other opposition leaders. In recent months he has shared the stage with K Chandrashekar Rao, Uddhav Thackeray and Nitish Kumar. Following Sisodia's resignation, Kejirwal suffered a huge embarrassment when he invited seven non-BJP CMs for a dinner and none turned up.

AAP’s Minimal Clout

The Delhi CM tried to play down the setback, saying it will happen after some time because the CMs were busy with their state budgets. In contrast, when Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge invited opposition leaders to dinner after Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification, top leaders from about 18 parties showed up.

The AAP chief’s desire for an opposition alliance excluding Congress also ran into a fundamental contradiction with Rahul Gandhi finding more support of late. This is going to be a difficulty ambitious opposition leaders will face going forward. There is also little doubt that Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra gave the Congress an unprecedented boost. Recall that Arvind Kejriwal began the "Make India No. 1" campaign on the same day as the BJY, yet little progress has been made.

Kejriwal’s soft line toward Congress started before Rahul’s disqualification in the Rajya Sabha. AAP leader Sanjay Singh has stood firm with Congress, in the JPC demand against Adani and on central agencies targeting opposition leaders. Singh participated in all of the meetings that Kharge convened and also walked in the Congress-led protests around Parliament.

In contrast, TMC maintained its distance, which used to be the position of AAP as well. During the President and Vice-President elections, the AAP did not meet with the other parties to strategise. AAP did not even attend TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee’s meetings to decide the opposition's presidential candidate.

The 2024 general election isn’t far away, and AAP is worried that the excise policy investigation may reach closer to Kejriwal. So he is no longer positioning himself as a leader who wants a national coalition keeping out Congress. The same hints have now come from Banerjee as well, following Gandhi’s disqualification.

First Badmouth, Then Befriend

During a press briefing by Kejriwal against Gandhi's disqualification, he said, "People will have to come together to save the country. This country belongs to all... Parties are not important; saving the country is more important... The relationship between the AAP and Congress is not important, but right now we will have to save the country... It is not a battle of either Rahul Gandhi or Congress; it is the fight to save the country from a person who is illiterate, dictatorial, and egoistic."

This indicates Kejriwal’s growing belief that for a bigger agenda like saving democracy, the opposition needs to come together, and by including Congress. In contrast, before the 2019 elections, Kejriwal directly hit out at Rahul Gandhi, saying that he was working to weaken the opposition.

It is a reality that Kejriwal has few friends in politics unlike Sharad Pawar, Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, or even KCR. This is because he is new to politics and isn’t comfortable with coalition politics. That Kejriwal came into politics badmouthing all politicians is only too recent to be forgotten. But altering his position of equidistance from the Congress and the BJP will hurt Kejriwal's national standing in the long run.

Risky Balancing Act

There is already evidence of it. Starting from Delhi, Punjab and Goa, to Gujarat, AAP has expanded its base at the Congress’s expense. In Karnataka, Kejriwal had planned to fight the election in full force. But after the announcement of poll dates, AAP is no longer showing the same enthusiasm.

Kejriwal’s main political challenge is now boiling down to balancing two contradictory aims:

* National expansion through state elections by weakening Congress

* Becoming part of an opposition alliance with Congress as its fulcrum that can oust BJP.

Kejriwal doesn’t have the comfort of the Left, which can pull off the political stunt of being Congress’s foe in Kerala and friend in Bengal, Tripura, and the Centre. Nor does he have a great personal equation based on past ties with the Gandhis like Mamata Banerjee, which will allow her to break the ice when needed, despite all the recent bitterness.

Sayantan Ghosh is a columnist and doctoral research scholar in media and politics. He tweets @sayantan_gh. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.