RBI CPI forecast – underestimate to overestimate?
Jun 28, 12:06

In February, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had said Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation would average 4.5 percent in FY23. Even though Russia hadn't yet invaded Ukraine, it was seen as an underestimate, with the central bank's survey of professional forecasters saying inflation would average 5 percent this year. Since then, the RBI has corrected course rather dramatically, with its latest forecast for FY23 standing at 6.7 percent – 220 basis points higher than the February number. Meanwhile, the tables have turned, with professional forecasters now estimating that CPI inflation will average 6.5 percent this financial year.


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