Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond issuances is likely to be less than half in FY23 compared to previous year, according to ratings agency ICRA. AT1 bond issuances are likely to fall sequentially to around Rs 20,000 crore in FY23, from an all-time high of nearly Rs 42,800 crore in FY22, it said.
AT1 bonds are a type of perpetual debt instrument that banks use to augment their core equity base and thus comply with Basel III norms. These bonds were introduced by the Basel accord after the global financial crisis to protect depositors. These are relatively risky as investors – mostly institutional players – may lose their entire capital as happened in case of Yes Bank in 2020.
ICRA said since the majority of these bonds include a call option in the fifth year, the issuances in FY22 were driven by the refinancing obligations of issues in FY17. While issuances were robust in FY2018, at Rs 34,400 crore, a significant number of them have already been refinanced in FY22, as the low interest rate environment provided banks with attractive possibilities to refinance these bonds at significantly reduced rates.
“Public sector banks are expected to raise Rs 20,100 crore in AT1 bonds during FY23, but private sector issuances are expected to remain modest depending on market opportunities,” said Anil Gupta, Vice President, ICRA . “Unlike in FY22, when issuances were mostly driven by rollover requirements, issuances by public banks in FY23 are primarily driven by growth requirements.”
The yields on recently issued AT1 bonds issued by public banks ranged from 8 to 8.75 percent, compared to 7.25 percent on a five-year government bond and 7.55 percent on a five-year AAA corporate bond. The coupon on the bonds issued recently is greater than the coupon on the bonds issued in FY22, but it is still lower than the rates on the bonds issued
earlier in FY17 and FY18.
The rating agency said net of new offerings and redemptions between April and July 2022, the AT1 bonds outstanding on July 31, 2022, were Rs 1.02 lakh crore. With approximately Rs 20,000 crore in estimated issuances throughout FY23 (of which Rs 5320 crore was issued in first four month of FY23) and Rs 9,400 crore billion in predicted redemptions during Aug-Mar 2023, the AT1 bonds outstanding are expected to reach around Rs 1.1 lakh crore by March 31, 2023.
Following Covid, large private banks raised over Rs 60000 crore in equity capital during FY2021, and the prognosis for internal capital generation remains favourable for both private and public banks.
“Given the sizeable capital raise and comfortable capital position of the majority of the large private banks, we do not expect materially large issuances from these banks in the near term, despite the fact that the existing AT1 bonds are significantly lower in relation to their RWAs when compared to public banks,” ICRA said.
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