As Bihar heads to assembly elections on November 6 and 11, the Mahagathbandhan on Thursday declared RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate.
Meanwhile, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahani was declared the deputy chief ministerial candidate. Senior Congress leader Ashok Gehlot, who made the announcement, said that apart from Sahani, another backward class leader would be made the deputy CM if the INDIA bloc came to power in Bihar.
Sahani’s selection is once again a reminder why big alliances need small parties and their leaders to consolidate support to strengthen their social base ahead of elections.
Why was Sahani named?
Sahani, who has earned the moniker “Son of Mallah”, had reportedly driven a hard bargain within the Mahagathbandhan. He had initially demanded 24 seats before settling for 15. Sahani wields influence among Mallah, Sahani, and Nishad communities, whose nine per cent electoral weight (according to the 2023 Bihar caste survey) could impact the poll outcome.
VIP joined the Mahagathbandhan for the 2019 general elections but did not win any seats. In 2020, Sahani’s party contested as part of the NDA, winning four Assembly seats.
Sahani later served as Bihar’s Minister for Animal Husbandry and Fisheries until his dismissal in March 2022. He is expected to bring in votes from the Mallah, Sahani, and Nishad communities for the Mahagatbandhan.
The Mallah community, a sub-caste of the Nishad community, is spread across Bihar but has influence in particularly in the Mithilanchal and Seemanchal regions.
The EBC bloc remains a crucial vote base for both major alliances. The BJP and JD(U) swept all seven Lok Sabha seats in 2024 in Mithilanchal. The VIP’s performance in this region could influence the Mahagathbandhan's final tally.
The CPI(ML)-Liberation also continues to be a strong force within Mahagathbandhan. The Left bloc won 16 of 29 seats it contested in 2020, with CPI(ML) alone securing 12 of 19 — a 63% strike rat
For the NDA also while the BJP and JD(U) remain the dominant forces, smaller allies such as Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM hold critical caste-based support bases that could influence close contests.
According to the seat-sharing arrangement in NDA, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) and the BJP are set to contest 101 seats each. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party-Ram Vilas (LJP-RV) will contest 29 seats, while Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) will each contest six seats.
RLM’s OBC base
There have reportedly been hot and blow relations between Upendra Kushwaha and Nitish Kumar. It is said that Kushwaha (Koiri caste) has played a pivotal role in keeping the CM in power. Kushwaha’s RLM has a strong vote base among the non-Yadav OBC community, particularly the Kushwahas.
Even though Kushwaha faced defeat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Karakat, he continues to hold influence among Bihar’s non-Yadav OBC voters. The NDA is aware of his reach in this group.
Manjhi’s influence
HAM chief Jiten Ram Manjhi himself will be contesting from Gaya, his daughter-in-law Deepa Kumari will be contesting from Imamganj and her mother Jyoti Devi will be fighting from Barachatti. HAM has strong support from the Musahar community. It is one of the key Dalit groups in Bihar. The Musahars mainly live in the Magadh region. Manjhi himself belongs to this community.
The major Dalit castes, namely Dusadh, Ravidas, Musahar, Pasi, Dhobi, and Bhuiyan, together represent quite a significant vote share. As part of the NDA alliance, HAM’s is expected to bring these Dalit votes together.
In 2020, HAM won four seats and later helped the CM stabilise his government when the NDA’s majority was slim.
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