Maharashtra MLC elections: Resort politics back as mistrust, cross-voting fears haunt parties

The MLC elections are scheduled for July 12.

In the last few decades, it has been a practice of various political parties to secure their MLAs in resorts after Assembly elections or whenever a government is seeking a trust vote on the floor of the Assembly. Political parties adopt such measures to keep their flock together and prevent horse trading. The same practice is now being adopted by a Maharashtra political party before the upcoming Legislative Council (Vidhan Parishad) polls. This is being done to abate the possibility of cross-voting since votes are cast through a secret ballot system.

The elections are scheduled for July 12.

In these elections, MLAs will vote to elect members of the upper house. The Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha has a strength of 288 MLAs. However, due to the demise of some members and a few members getting elected to the Lok Sabha recently, the strength has dwindled to 274. According to the formula, each candidate must secure at least 23 votes to be elected.

It is learned that all the major constituents of both Mahayuti and MVA, except Sharad Pawar's NCP, have booked resorts and will move their MLAs by Wednesday. The case of Ajit Pawar's NCP is particularly sensitive as there are reports that a few MLAs who rebelled along with him want to return to Sharad Pawar. The Ajit camp fears that such MLAs may cross-vote for MVA candidates to prove their intent of returning.

The BJP's numerical strength in the lower house allows it to get five MLCs elected. Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena is fielding two candidates, and Ajit Pawar's NCP is also fielding two candidates. While all the candidates of BJP and Shinde Sena can easily get elected, Ajit Pawar’s only one candidate could safely win while the second one is short of four votes. Only votes from smaller parties or cross-voting from the opposite camp can help his second candidate win. Overall, the incumbent Mahayuti (NDA) is likely to win a minimum of eight seats.

The opposition alliance of MVA has fielded three candidates in total. The Congress party, with 40 MLAs, is fielding only one candidate, leaving it with 17 surplus votes. Sharad Pawar’s NCP has not fielded any candidate of its own but has supported Jayant Patil of the Peasants and Workers Party. Uddhav Thackeray surprised everyone by nominating his confidante and Shiv Sena (UBT) secretary Milind Narvekar despite lacking sufficient numbers. However, Narvekar could win if the surplus votes of Congress are cast in his favor. It remains undisclosed whether the surplus votes of Congress will go to him, to Sharad Pawar's supported candidate, or to the opposite camp.

In the 2022 Legislative Council polls, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar were jolted when some MLAs of the MVA cross-voted for the Mahayuti candidates. A few hours after the elections, Eknath Shinde rebelled from the Shiv Sena and went to Surat with MLAs supporting him. Now, after performing brilliantly in the Lok Sabha polls, the leaders of MVA are confident of victory in the Vidhan Parishad polls as well. The supporters of both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar are speculating that the rebel MLAs of both parties are in touch with the two leaders, as they want to return. To convince Thackeray and Pawar of their intent, they may cross-vote to help MVA candidates win.

The total strength of the Vidhan Parishad is 78. The MLAs elect 30 members, local bodies elect 22, graduates elect seven, teachers elect seven, and 12 members are nominated by the governor. Like the Rajya Sabha, the Legislative Council is a permanent house and is never dissolved. An MLC is elected for a tenure of six years.