Karnataka Elections: Hubli-Dharwad Central result may be political pointer for next few years

Shettar started his political career in the early 1980s with the Janata Party. Later, he joined the BJP and held various positions, including state party chief. A seven-time MLA, his journey began from Hubbali Rural constituency in 1994. In 2008, after delimitation, he won from Hubli-Dharwad Central three times.

The Lingayat question

Shettar served as deputy chief minister and was credited with carrying out developmental work as minister for rural development and panchayat raj, and then as minister for large and medium industries. He went on to become chief minister of Karnataka in 2012, succeeding DV Sadananda Gowda. His tenure lasted nine months as the BJP lost the May 2013 assembly elections.

As Karnataka goes to polls on May 10, the result of the Hubli-Dharwad Central Constituency may well turn out to be a pointer to the state of political affairs in the Vidhana Soudha for the next few years.

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“The results will reflect on the ability of the BJP to retain its foothold in the Lingayat belt (for the 2024 parliament polls) despite the exodus of prominent leaders, on the strength of its well-organised cadre,” said Mahesh Patil, a Lingayat voter from Hubbali who voted for the BJP last time but is undecided now. “That depends on the sentiment of the powerful community, a slice of which may turn its sympathy towards Shettar, once its idol, and now a victim.”

Whether such sentiment will tilt the balance is the million-dollar question.

While Shettar, a lawyer, started several initiatives to improve the living conditions of the rural people, including the construction of toilets and the supply of clean drinking water, the general perception is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi led these development activities because he inaugurated many of these projects.

The twin cities of Hubli and Dharwad are major commercial and industrial hubs in north Karnataka and the Lingayats are the largest by number – about 90,000 – followed by about 78,000 voters from the minority sections of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Muslims.

But Shettar grabbing a sympathetic slice of the votes is not ruled out and that has made the campaign – a high-decibel prestigious affair with heavyweights Rahul Gandhi, Siddaramaiah, JP Nadda and Pralhad Joshi wooing voters – more interesting this time.

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Promise of jobs

On the heels of former state chief minister BS Yediyurappa and BJP chief Nadda’s visits, Tenginkai’s campaign saw Union minister Joshi, the MP from Dharwad, address the SCs and STs Forum members. The local Wrestling Association members and deputy mayor Uma Mukunda also rooted for the BJP candidate, Shettar’s former political strategist who may turn out to be his nemesis.

“I’m a hard nut to crack, but I’m soft inside, just like my surname Tenginkai (coconut). I proposed a comprehensive development plan for the region, be it drinking water facilities in rural areas or electricity connections. Our party will also create jobs for the unemployed,” said Tenginkai.

BJP district general secretary Ravi N Bankapur, who garlanded BR Ambedkar’s statue along with Shettar a week before the latter joined the Congress, is now aggressively campaigning against him.

“It’s foolish to think that Lingayat loyalty will shift. Isn't our leader Tenginkai a Lingayat as well?” Bankapur asked.

On the other hand, Shettar disowned Tenginkai and said the time has come for the people to decide who is best for the development of the region.

“People of this constituency have seen the developments I’ve proposed and implemented. Whether it’s the solar park or roads, my plan to make Hubli Dharwad twin cities as smart cities is on target,” he said.

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Later, he met the Lingayat seers in Hubbali along with Davengere South Assembly MLA Shamanur Shivashankarappa, a nonagenarian Congress leader, who at 92 is the oldest legislator contesting the polls.

The constituency has more women voters (125,617) than male voters (123,584). It has about 10,000 Kurubas, 18,000 Brahmins and 13,000 Christians. A majority of the Lingayats (about 90,000) lean towards the BJP, while 42,811 Muslims, 27,255 SCs and over 13,000 Christians are considered the traditional Congress vote bank.

Unique virtual campaign

The Hubli-Dharwad twin cities have a 943,000 population (2023 estimates) and half of Dharwad city falls under the Hubli-Dharwad Central constituency while the other half along with other rural areas come under Dharwad Rural constituency, where the Congress fielded Vinay Kulkarni, who won in 2013 against sitting MLA Amrut Ayyappa Desai of the BJP.

However, Kulkarni was barred from entry into the district by a court due to a pending criminal case, which forced him to indulge in a virtual campaign.

“Kulkarni is all set to notch up a unique victory in Karnataka, even without visiting the constituency once,” said Karan Rajesh, the ‘virtual campaign’ manager, who unleashed a string of entertaining and interactive digital video and audio solutions.

“With 15 sessions per day covering over 60 villages and nine city wards, we’ve covered over 95 percent of the constituency. Our candidate’s wife, Shivaleela, and daughter have been campaigning,” said Santosh HM of Spintech Global, who manages a team of about 150 volunteers and moves around the villages.

“Vinay is popular among the locals and, especially with the Muslim community voting for Congress, his chances of winning have suddenly increased in the last couple of days,” said Syed Asif, a resident who has seen five elections.

“Apart from the mass outreach digital campaign, my father is interacting with thousands of villagers daily with live video conference sessions,” said Kulkarni’s 25-year eldest daughter Vaishali. “He’ll soon come out clean.”