Jharkhand Election Result 2019: Not just in leads, outcome split in bellwether seats too

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance was hovering just under the majority mark of 41 seats, in the leads as of 9.45 am on December 23.

Counting of votes for the 2019 Jharkhand Legislative Assembly election started at 8 am. The polling happened in five phases between November 30 and December 20.

By definition, a constituency that votes for the political party which eventually forms the government is called a bellwether seat.

While there is no scientific basis to this, bellwether constituencies usually act as a marker for the final results.

So, here’s what is happenings in the bellwether seats right now:

Rajmahal (Sahebganj district): BJP leading
Dumka (Dumka): BJP leading
Tundi (Dhanbad): JMM leading
Ghatsila (East Singhbhum): AJSU leading
Potka (East Singhbhum): BJP leading
Jugsalai (East Singhbhum): AJSU leading
Gumla (Gumla): JMM leading
Simdega (Simdega): BJP leading
Lohardaga (Lohardaga): Congress leading
Manika (Latehar): Congress leading

The above data shows that as of 9.45 am, the outcome of the Assembly election seemed to be split not only in terms of the leads, but also in Jharkhand’s bellwether seats.

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Note on methodology: It is to be noted that Raghubar Das is the only chief minister in Jharkhand’s history to have completed a tenure in office. This means that governments in the state have changed frequently even as the Assembly polls were held only every five years.

Two or more governments have been sworn in within one Legislative Assembly tenure on more than one occasion.

For example, three governments were in office during the third Legislative Assembly (2009-2014). First, it was JMM leader Shibu Soren’s government that lasted under six months. This was followed by President’s Rule and a BJP government led by Arjun Munda. This government lasted under two and a half years. Finally, after another segment of President’s Rule Soren’s son Hemant formed a government that lasted till the end of the Assembly’s tenure concluded.

Hence, the analysis takes into consideration the first government formed after every Assembly election held in the state. It does not consider any government formed subsequently.

The majority mark in Jharkhand’s 81-member Assembly is 41. No party has been able to reach that figure on its own. Having fallen short, parties have formed governments with the support of parties that were not part of their pre-poll alliance. These post-poll alliance has also been considered in this analysis.

The winning side in 2014 was the BJP-All Jharkhand Student's Union pre-poll alliance. In 2009, JMM had formed the government with the support of BJP and AJSU. In 2005, JMM had formed the government with pre-poll partner Congress and post-poll support of RJD, Dumka’s Independent Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) Stephen Marandi, among others.

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