Investor and author Ruchir Sharma has said that the results of the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand are likely to be in line with the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in these states.
In an interview with India Today, Sharma said that past trends suggest that similar voting pattern is observed in state polls which follow national polls (within six to 12 months).
"Generally, when you look at the pattern of Indian elections, what happens in a Lok Sabha election - if there is a state election being held in 6 or 12 months - that pattern tends to repeat itself ... nothing has changed in terms of alliance significantly since then, so you would expect the pattern to repeat itself," he said.
Complete coverage: Assembly elections 2024
In Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SC) trumped the Mahayuti alliance comprising BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP in the Lok Sabha polls. The MVA won 31 out of the 48 seats in the state while Mahayuti was restricted to 17. In Jharkhand, BJP-led NDA won 9 seats out of 14 seats while JMM-Congress alliance secured 5.
Nationwide, the BJP-led NDA came to power for a third successive time but BJP had to rely on allies to form the government since it fell short of majority.
Sharma told India Today that the results of assembly elections in Maharashtra may follow the Lok Sabha pattern, which could mean the return of MVA government in the state.
He added that his views were based on past trends and not recent field observations.
Sharma also said that he does not believe that the momentum of Haryana polls will carry into the Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections, adding that each state election in India is "distinct".
"I don't believe in this momentum theory. If momentum was the issue, then the BJP would have never won Haryana, because the momentum was so against it," he said, referring to the saffron party's remarkable victory in the state despite wide expectations that it will fall short of the majority.
Sharma added that elections in India are inherently distinct and the voting behaviour in every state is guided by local issues and not the national sentiment.
The global investor said that the Haryana elections were possibly the "freakiest poll result" he has ever seen in India. "Not one journalist who came back from Haryana said, Hey, something different may happen," he said, adding that even BJP insiders did not see it coming.
The final assembly elections of 2024 will take place in Maharashtra and Jharkhand in November. Jharkhand will vote in two phases on November 13 and November 20 while Maharashtra will vote in a single phase on November 20. The results will be declared on November 23.
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