BJP-JD(U) parity, Chirag Paswan's big moment: All about NDA's seat-sharing pact for Bihar polls

This is the first time since they formed their alliance in 1996 that JD(U) and BJP are contesting equal number of seats in Bihar.

After hectic parlays, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) finalised its seat-sharing formula for the upcoming Bihar elections on Sunday, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal-United (JDU) contesting 101 seats each.

Meanwhile, the Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vikas) got 29 seats, while the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) of Jitan Ram Manjhi and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) of Upendra Kushwaha will contest six seats each.

According to reports, Paswan's threat to contest all 243 seats may have impacted the math, proving to be a crucial bargaining chip ahead of the elections.

NDA insiders told The Indian Express that this was the first time the BJP led the discussions with the allies. The JD(U) is learnt to have made it clear that it would stay away from the negotiations with smaller allies.

JD(U) no longer in driving seat

This is the first time since they formed their alliance in 1996 that JD(U) and BJP are contesting equal number of seats in Bihar.

This marks a major shift in the state’s political equation as Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s party has traditionally contested a larger share whenever the two parties have been in alliance.

BJP had reportedly made it clear that it will no longer play the second fiddle in the state.

The seat-sharing pact signals the shrinking space for JD(U) in the state, especially at a time when Nitish is facing anti-incumbency and questions over his health. JD(U), the junior ally in the Lok Sabha elections, now faces parity even in the assembly polls — a clear signal that another poor showing could cost it its pole position in Bihar politics.

In the 2020 polls, the JD(U) and the BJP had contested 115 and 110 seats, respectively. While JD(U) won 43 at a vote share of 15.39%, BJP bagged 74 seats with a vote share of 19.46%. BJP's strike rate was 68% while the JD(U)'s was below 38%.

BJP the big brother?

For the BJP, the seat-sharing pact means the party has come full circle since the 2015 debacle. In the 2015 assembly election, when Nitish-led JD(U) had allied with Lalu Yadav's RJD and the Congress, BJP faced its first electoral defeat after PM Modi came to power at the Centre in 2014.

However, Nitish returned to the NDA-fold midway, and they contested the 2020 election together. After the alliance in 2020, Nitish retained his office despite winning fewer seats than BJP.

The shift reflects a larger power realignment in Bihar, where the BJP’s national machinery and electoral strategy have increasingly overshadowed the regional clout that once defined Nitish Kumar’s politics. Despite the absence of a bankable face, the party has relied heavily on PM Modi and its national clout to expand its influence in the state as it slowly becomes the primus intr paras within NDA.

LJP’s big pie

Instead of the 40 seats it had demanded, Paswan’s party got a substantial share of 29 constituencies in the polls. In 2020, Chirag left the NDA and contested 135 seats independently. He won just 1 but impacted the JD(U) on over 30 seats. It is said Chirag's veiled criticism of Nitish Kumar's governance, particularly on law and order, was a roadblock for the alliance to seal the seat-sharing deal.

Moreover, the LJP’s strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when it won all five seats it contested, gave it bargaining power.

The seat allotment to Chirag’s party is being seen as the next step for the BJP. By ensuring the highest seat share for LJP among allies, the BJP has indicated that it now wants to promote PM Modi’s “Hanuman” as a Dalit face and for bigger roles. The seat allotment also highlighted Chirag’s growing influence within the alliance.

Impact on HAM

Jitan Ram Manjhi of Hidustani Awam Morcha (HAM) had threatened to go solo in the Bihar polls without a generous share of seats. This time, he has been allotted six seats. It is one less than 2020.

Manjhi, who has one Lok Sabha MP at the Centre, who is also a Union minister, continues to remain a small but significant partner within the NDA.

According to political observers, Manjhi’s influence is mostly confined to Gaya. They say the NDA kept him within the alliance to ensure Dalit representation and stability in Gaya.

It is also being said Manjhi's seats were reduced solely to appease Chirag Paswan.

RLM’s condition

The NDA reportedly bargained with the Rashtriya Lok Morcha of Upendra Kushwaha with the promise of making him a Union minister. Currently, he is in the Rajya Sabha. According to a report in The Times of India, Kushwaha said NDA had undervalued his party and warned that such decisions could have repercussions within the alliance.

In a post on X on Sunday, Kushwaha wrote, "I seek your forgiveness. The number of seats could not be as per your expectations. "I seek forgiveness from all of you. The number of seats hasn't met your expectations. I understand that this decision will sadden thousands and millions of people, including colleagues who aspired to be candidates for our party. Today, in many homes, food might not have been cooked. However, I am sure you all understand the constraints and limitations of both me and the party."

All NDA allies have publicly welcomed the seat-sharing arrangement which is quite in contrast to the opposition Mahagathbandhan.

The INDIA bloc is yet to declare its seat-sharing arrangement, with differences reportedly persisting between the Congress and RJD for the two-phase Bihar election on November 6 and 11.