Australia’s weather bureau has indicated that India is likely to have a normal rainy season in 2021, which is important to the country’s agriculture.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), in its forecast, said that neutral ‘ENSO’ conditions are likely at the start of India’s southwesterly monsoon, reported The Economic Times.
‘ENSO’ refers to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical Pacific that results in a somewhat periodic variation between below-normal and above-normal sea surface temperatures.
The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña.
According to the report, the La Niña phenomenon has peaked and its effect will be felt till the start of the monsoon season in June.
Meanwhile, to better its monsoon forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will use the multi-model ensemble approach and also give a monthly outlook for the four months of the rainfall season, its director-general Mrutunjay Mohapatra has said.
Addressing a day-long seminar on 'Annual Monsoon E-Workshop and National E-symposium on Cloud Precipitation’ on January 18, Mohapatra admitted that the forecast for Southwest Monsoon, 2020 was not accurate.
"We will be using the multi-model ensemble approach for forecasting Southwest Monsoon 2021," the DG said.
This will include other dynamical models, which give weightage to different parameters while issuing forecasts. Currently, forecasts are made using the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) and Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS).
"We will also try to give monthly forecasts for all the four months of monsoon," Mohapatra added. June to September are, officially, the rainfall months of the country.
The IMD will also give a flood warning forecast to the Central Water Commission for five days, Mohapatra added. It currently gives flood forecasts for three days.