WTC Final 2023: India or Australia, who stands a better chance at winning?

India or Australia Here's which team will win WTC final 2023 if the match ends in a draw (Photo: BCCI Twitter)

There are two ways of looking at India’s title drought in International Cricket Council tournaments since they won the Champions Trophy in England in 2013 — that they haven’t been able to tame the knockout hoodoo, or that they have been consistent enough to reach the business end of almost every competition in the last decade.

Apart from the misadventure in the UAE desert in 2021 when they failed to advance beyond the first stage in the T20 World Cup, India’s CV over the last 10 years is anything but shabby. They reached the final of the T20 World Cup in Bangladesh in 2014, the semi-final of the 50-over World Cup in Australia and New Zealand in 2015 and crashed out at the same stage in the T20 World Cup in their own backyard the following year.

In 2017, they were bested by Pakistan in the final of the Champions Trophy in England, the same country where their campaign in its 50-over counterpart ended in semifinal heartbreak against New Zealand in 2019. It was also in England, in 2021, that they conceded the final of the inaugural World Test Championship (WTC), again to New Zealand; last year’s last-four hammering at the hands of eventual champions England in the semi-final of the T20 World Cup completes the knockout capitulation that has started to assume alarming proportions with every abortive campaign.

It's impossible that this sustained inability to make the final push will not be working on Indian minds as they prepare for another assault at the WTC trophy. Up against them, in the final starting at The Oval in London on June 7, are old foes Australia; there’s little the teams don’t know about each other, but in a one-off game with so much at stake, familiarity will only count for that much.

That the title clash comes a little over a week after the completion of Season 16 of the Indian Premier League (IPL) highlights the short turnaround time confronting Rohit Sharma’s team, more than their opponents. No more than a fifth of the Aussie 15 was a part of the IPL, and only Cameron Green and David Warner were regulars for their respective franchises. That gave Australia the opportunity of having a small preparatory camp back home, followed by a top-up exercise in England with all players in attendance. By contrast, except Cheteshwar Pujara, everyone else in the Indian squad was involved in the 20-over extravaganza, therefore the need for a shift in mindset from the frenetic T20 format to the statelier longer version is immediate and imperative.

While it is true that most members of the Indian side did hone their red-ball skills even within the contours of their IPL practice sessions, their primary focus then would have been on the immediate task. As such, the week together in England assumes greater significance because it enables the squad to practice as a group, refamiliarising itself with the red Dukes ball and working out ways and means through which to halt the full-strength Aussie juggernaut.

India have an excellent recent record against Australia to fall back on, for whatever its worth. Since 2017, they have won all four Test series — two at home, two away — by identical 2-1 margins, the last of them coming as recently as this March. Again, beyond feel-good, those results won’t matter a great deal, especially given that this encounter will be in neutral territory even if the majority of the ground will be rooting for Rohit’s lads.

Where Pat Cummins’ outfit has the entire contingent of top dogs to choose from, India will again have to make do without the effervescent Rishabh Pant and the peerless Jasprit Bumrah, impact players capable of changing the course of a Test match in just one session. India have semi-reconciled to playing without Bumrah for the last nine months, now recuperating from back surgery, and while he is irreplaceable, the depth in the pace department goes some distance towards compensating at least in part for his unavailability. Pant, though, is a different cup of tea. His wicketkeeping has come on by leaps and bounds in the last two and a half years, and in front of the stumps, he is daring, unorthodox, unique, intrepid and dangerously unpredictable. Australia have been at the receiving end of many a Pant lashing, not least his unbeaten 89 which muscled India to a record chase at the Gabba in 2021 in the deciding game of the epochal four-Test series, and while their thoughts will be with the stocky left-hander as he recovers from the horrific car accident of last December, they will be silently thanking their lucky stars that they won’t have to contend with the maverick this time around.

The recall of Ajinkya Rahane to the Test set-up after nearly 17 months on the sidelines means the old firm of Pujara, who has been gearing up for the series with a stint with Sussex in the English County Championship, Virat Kohli and the returning Mumbaikar has been reunited. Alongside Rohit, they provide steel and experience while the irrepressible Shubman Gill, with eight hundreds in the first five months of 2023 across all formats, looms as an imperious, majestic figure with a point to prove in England. It’s to this quintet that Rohit and head coach Rahul Dravid will turn to blunt the skills of Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon, as incisive a bowling attack as any going in world cricket.

Australia’s batting is intimidatingly formidable, with Marnus Labuschagne and former skipper Steve Smith looming as the biggest but not only threats. India have employed effective game plans in the past, and as always, will be aware that success will hinge on the efficacy of the backroom planning and its successful implementation on the field.

For the Aussies, the WTC final holds the threat of being a distraction ahead of the Ashes, with the first of five Tests against England starting on June 16. If they are even slightly off the boil, India will look to step in and land robust punches, but that might be wishful thinking, given how professionally tunnel-visioned the Australians are known to be. The promise of a classic battle of will, skill and adaptability looms, though cup finals generally tend not to live up to the hype.