Why candidates remain confident of switching jobs despite recession fears

Randstad’s Workmonitor 2023 study shows that a minimum of eight out of 10 employees are confident about securing a new job within 3-6 months.

With an experience of nearly five years in Information Technology (IT), techie Prachi Gupta (name changed on request) has switched three firms, most recently in November 2022, when news of layoffs in the industry started.

Gupta regarded herself as lucky. The job hopping could have resulted in onboarding delays – a factor prevalent these days. Because she wanted to work at her next employer for at least two years, Gupta thought of checking out demand in the talent market.

She said she was “shocked” to see so many recruiters open to hiring her. Two offered her a hike of 40-50 percent above the last salary. What’s more, she even received a call from the Human Resource (HR) department of a former employer that recently laid off over 200 employees, offering a role in the organisation with better pay.

Gupta is thinking of switching jobs again! She’s not alone.

Studies by recruitment firms such as Michael Page, Randstad and TeamLease have shown that the Great Resignation wave hasn't disappeared entirely from the Indian talent market; traces of it lingered on.

For instance, Michael Page India found that 75 percent of employees in India were “active job seekers,” meaning they are looking right now or plan to find a new job within the next six months. Twenty-three percent are on the fence, but open to a new job.

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The demand for talent, especially for niche skills, is still high, led by both the IT and non-IT sectors. In the past, the confidence of Indian talent was driven by buoyancy in hiring; now, it is about replacement hiring, said Anil Ethanur, co-founder of specialist staffing company Xpheno.

While enterprises across key talent consuming cohorts of IT have paused or slowed hiring, their attrition rates have remained significant.

“Enterprises are not seen hiring in volumes for expansion or additional capacity. However, attrition-linked replacement hiring is in play as enterprises intend to retain size and capacity,” he said.

Xpehno data shows that the high potential cohort of Indian Unicorns and Soonicorns has attracted nearly 170,000 professionals during the last year. Nearly 100,000 of this was replacement hiring.

The top eight IT service providers, despite a drop in expansion hiring, had to hire 475,000 to maintain their headcount size. The gross hiring by this cohort, including the expansion hiring, was 560,000 lakh in the financial year ended March 2023.

Focussed hiring

Major firms in the non-IT segment are investing heavily in retaining and attracting talent, more so in Electric Vehicles (EVs), domestic airlines, financial services and even startups.

Agreeing that some businesses prioritise stability and a proven track record, Pankaj Gulati, Chief People Officer of Fincare SFB, said confident candidates showcasing their skills, adaptability, and value proposition can find organisations that appreciate their attitude and potential contribution even in these challenging times.

The Bengaluru-based bank plans to hire over 1,500 people in this financial year and its recruitment process will involve rigorous evaluation and selection to ensure that the most qualified and suitable candidates are selected.

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A similar trend is visible in CXO hiring. Although companies are hiring consciously, executive search firm Korn Ferry observed that as companies realign their business models and look for future-focused roles, there is a growing need for talent with advanced skills.

“However, multinational firms are putting in certain hiring checks and controls as they are tied to global businesses which are influenced by macroeconomic factors,” said Konika Chadha, Regional Market Leader of India in Korn Ferry.

Even for startups with major hiring plans such as Codleo Consulting, Homesfy.in and Mymagnet.io, the ‘offer letter vs offer letter’ battle remains in addition to facing the challenge of retaining top-performing talent in a competitive job market.

Temporary slowdown

Randstad’s Workmonitor 2023 study shows that a minimum of eight out of 10 employees are confident about securing a new job within 3-6 months.

The staffing firm observed that the temporary slowdown in hiring was primarily because companies were looking to utilise their bench strength before onboarding fresh talent.

Having said that, compared to the first quarter of 2022, Randstad has already witnessed a jump in hiring intent by around 18-20 percent in the first quarter of 2023.

In fact, some sectors like telecommunications, financial services, and pharma have almost doubled their hiring intentions.

On the other hand, sectors like e-commerce, retail, and Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) have also shown significant growth, each with more than 80 percent expansion in hiring outlook.

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“Over the next five years, the job market in India is projected to undergo a significant 20-22 percent turnover, with the most promising roles originating from the AI (Artificial Intelligence), machine learning, and data sectors,” said Yeshab Giri, Chief Commercial Officer of Staffing and Technologies at Randstad India.

All eyes on next 6 months

With nearly half the calendar year in the rearview mirror, all bets are now on the next six months for a stabilisation of the talent market, Xpheno’s Ethanur said.

He said key talent sectors typically cannot stay away from hiring for longer than 2-3 quarters because it impacts their future talent supply chain and business prospects.

India's top five IT companies — Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra — added 83,906 employees in FY23, a 69 percent decline from the previous year's addition of 273,377 employees.

“The six months starting July will witness a recovery of talent action in the slowdown sectors, in response to stabilisation of global market climate,” Ethanur said.