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USD-INR: Watch out for these 3 factors this week

But, INR investors expect some relief in the form of Union Budget publishing on Saturday.

January 29, 2020 / 04:36 PM IST

Dharmesh Bhatia

The Indian rupee appreciated by 0.45% for the third day this week to 71.21 against the US dollar. The pair consolidated from a two week high of 71.40 amidst fears surrounding the outbreak of China’s coronavirus weighing on the trading sentiment and strengthening of the counterpart currency.

But, INR investors expect some relief in the form of Union Budget publishing on Saturday.

Furthermore, markets wait for the U.S. Fed Reserve’s first meeting which is scheduled for 28th-29th January’20 to provide further direction on the pair’s movement.

Trump Visit in Focus

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The United States President is scheduled to travel to India between February 21st and 24th, with a day stead fasted to a joint public function with PM Narendra Modi. The key focus of this visit remains on a trade pact along with discussions about China, Iran, & Afghanistan.

India also expects the restoration of the GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) scheme, which allowed zero tariffs on exports worth $5.6 billion to the US with the exception of India buying $6bn worth of US farm goods in order to raze the trade deficit.

MSCI remains range bound

MSCI's index for emerging market currencies remained range bound with commodity-exposed currencies including the Russian rouble and the South African rand weakening against the USD as the rising death toll from the coronavirus outbreak amped up fears of an economic slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy.

Events in China have impacted the global currency markets in two ways; the risk channel, as global growth concerns hit the commodity channel.

Markets in Asia are likely to remain flat before the US Federal Reserve meeting later today. The Fed Reserve is expected to reiterate its desire to keep rates unchanged at least for 2020.

(The author is Associate Vice President, FX and Commodities, Emirates NBD)

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Moneycontrol Contributor
first published: Jan 29, 2020 04:36 pm

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