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What should investors do with IOC after Q4 results; buy, sell or hold?

The average gross refining margin (GRM) for the year FY22 stood at $11.25 per barrel (bbl) as against $5.64 per bbl a year ago.

May 18, 2022 / 09:41 AM IST
Indian Oil Corporation

Indian Oil Corporation

 
 
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Shares of Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) slipped nearly 4 percent in the early trade on May 18, a day after company reported a 31.4 percent decline in its net profit in Q4FY22 to Rs 6,022. While the net profit declined sequentially, the company reported highest ever net profit for the year ended March 2022.

The state-run oil marketing company reported revenue of Rs 2,06,461 crore during the quarter under review, as compared to Rs 1,63,733 crore logged in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

For the year 2021-22, the company reported a record high revenue of Rs 728,460 crore as against Rs 5,14,890 crore in the previous financial year, riding high on the surge in crude oil prices.

The average gross refining margin (GRM) for the year FY22 stood at $11.25 per barrel (bbl) as against $5.64 per bbl a year ago.

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Here is what brokerages have to say about stock and the company post March quarter earnings:

Prabhudas Lilladher

We cut our FY23E IOCL’s earnings estimate by 45% as we cut our marketing assumptions (diesel and petrol margins of –Rs3/0/litre vs +Rs3.5/3/litre earlier), even as we increase our GRM estimates to USD14/bbl vs USD7.4bbl earlier.

We also lower our FY24E estimates by 19%.

We believe OMCs earnings will be hit by sharp jump in marketing losses, despite improvement in refining profitability.

We downgrade to ‘’HOLD from ‘BUY’ given high crude price volatility with price target of Rs 131 (Rs 150 earlier). Any sharp correction in crude prices is an upside risk to our estimates.

Motilal Oswal

We expect a dividend payout to be ~51% in FY23-24 as well. IOCL trades at 7.5x consolidated FY24E EPS and 0.8x FY24E P/BV.

It is likely to benefit the most among its peers from an uptick in refining margin, further supported by a robust petchem margin in the near term.

We value the stock at 1x FY24E P/BV to arrive at our target price of Rs 164, an upside of 32%. We maintain our Buy rating.

At 09:20 hrs Indian Oil Corporation was quoting at Rs 120.40, down Rs 4.00, or 3.22 percent on the BSE.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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first published: May 18, 2022 09:40 am
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