ICICI Direct expects USDINR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
Spot Currency
The rupee recouped some of its previous losses vs. the US$ and closed higher by eight paise, helped by softer oil prices as well as a ranged US$. The rupee may open slightly weaker today amid risk off sentiment due to the US President’s fresh tariff threat • The US$ ended the session with further losses as reinitiating tariffs on Brazilian and Argentinian steel has raised fears that it could jeopardise the US-China trade talks. Euro jumped sharply due to a sell-off in the US$. The CNY is currently trading near 7.04 levels. Further weakness in the same could put pressure on EM currencies, including the rupee.
Benchmark yield
Domestic benchmark 10-year yields ended a bit higher at 6.49% in the previous session. Growing worries over domestic growth as well as hardening US yields could contain a sharp appreciation in domestic debt • US 10-year benchmark yields ended further higher at 1.82%. Investors are likely to track the upcoming US November employment data as well as direction of US-China trade talks.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee December contract on the NSE was at 71.83 in the previous session. Open interest declined 0.63% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
Intra-day strategy
| US$INR December futures contract (NSE) | View: Bearish on US$INR |
| Sell US$ in the range of 71.93 -71.97 | Market Lot: US$1000 |
| Target: 71.70 / 71.60 | Stop Loss: 72.13 |
| Support | Resistance |
| S1/ S2: 71.70 / 71.60 | R1/R2:71.95 / 72.15 |
Read More
