ICICI Direct expects USDINR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
Spot Currency
The rupee posted mild gains in the previous session amid range bound trading. It is likely to open mildly weaker today tracking strength in the dollar as well as some weakness seen in CNY • The US$ index extended gains on Friday amid profit booking in major currencies as well as an overall trading range. Dollar remains anchored to direction of US-China trade talks as well as Fed moves. CNY has seen some depreciation in the last few sessions as the US President embarked on fresh tariff threat rhetoric. Weakness in CNY is likely to put pressure on most EM currencies, including rupee.
Benchmark yield
Domestic benchmark 10-year yields ended mildly lower at 6.50% in the previous session. Growing worries over domestic growth as well as hardening US yields could contain a sharp appreciation in domestic debt • US 10-year benchmark yields ended unchanged at 1.77%. The US President’s fresh threat of higher tariffs on Chinese imports in case of a deal failure worsened risk sentiments.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee November contract on the NSE was at 71.75 in the previous session. Open interest increased 2.03% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
Intra-day strategy
| US$INR November futures contract (NSE) | View: Bullish on US$INR |
| Sell US$ in the range of 71.86 -71.90 | Market Lot: US$1000 |
| Target: 71.60 / 71.50 | Stop Loss: 72.05 |
| Support | Resistance |
| S1/ S2: 71.70 / 71.55 | R1/R2:71.90 / 72.05 |
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