ICICI Direct expects USDINR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee extended mild gains vs. the US$ ending higher by almost 3 paise. It is likely to open with further gains amid appreciation in Chinese Yuan and soft US$. However, strength in oil prices is likely to create headwind for sharp gains in the rupee • The US$ index ended mildly lower as a rebound in the Euro and GBP led to profit booking. Risk aversion has declined amid expectation that Brexit is most likely to get delayed or there is less possibility of a hard Brexit. Chinese Yuan has seen some appreciation. This is positive for EM currencies, including the rupee.
Domestic benchmark 10-year yields ended lower at 6.51% in the previous session. Investors are likely to track the government’s spending data amid signals that it may fail to meet its revenue target • The US 10-year benchmark was unchanged at 1.76% in the previous session. Brexit uncertainty as well as absence of any major market data is keeping yields in a range.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee October contract on the NSE was at 70.95 in the previous session. Open interest increased 6.65% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
|US$INR October futures contract (NSE)||View: Bearish on US$INR|
|Sell US$ in the range of 70.88 -70.92||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 70.65 / 70.55||Stop Loss: 71.07|
|S1/ S2: 70.80 / 70.60||R1/R2:70.95 / 71.15|