ICICI Direct expects USDINR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee ended on a higher note against the US$ due to benefit of declining oil prices and consolidation in the US$. It is expected to open further higher today owing to dovish comments from the Fed chairman regarding neutral interest rates • The US$ declined against major currencies post the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech. His comments regarding neutral interest rates in the US weighed on dollar. We expect major currencies as well as EM currencies, including rupee, to benefit from a decline in the US$.
Government bonds jumped sharply owing to a sustained decline in oil prices as well as buying support from the central bank. They are further expected to rally amid a fall in US yields and lower oil prices • US treasury yields were unchanged even as investors remain cautious ahead of G-20 meeting as well as relatively dovish Fed chief comments.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar - rupee December contract on the NSE was at 70. 84 in the previous session. December contract open interest increased 19. 72 % in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
|US$INR December futures contract (NSE)||View: Bearish on US$INR|
|Sell US$ in the range of 70.54 -70.60||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 70.30 / 70.20||Stop Loss: 70.73|
|S1/ S2: 70.50 / 70.30||R1/R2:70.65 /70.75|