ICICI Direct expects USDINR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee ended Friday on a strong note recovering some of its previous losses supported by declines in oil prices as well as consolidation in the US$. It is expected to open further stronger today as the dollar remains in a consolidation mode ahead of Fed’s monetary policy meeting outcome • The dollar index ended lower yesterday as major currencies gained while caution ahead of the Fed policy outcome also weighed on dollar. Although the Fed is not expected to raise interest rates in May policy meeting, investors would gauge its economic and inflation assessment in the backdrop of decent growth seen in US retail sales and housing data.
Government bonds gained as yields declined tracking the slump in oil prices. Domestic debt is likely to trade in a range ahead of General Election outcome while moves in oil prices also remains a crucial factor • US treasury yields rose ahead of Fed policy outcome as well as higher expectation of positive outcome from US-China trade talks.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee May contract on the NSE was at 70.34 in the previous session. May contract open interest declined 2.70% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
|US$INR May futures contract (NSE)||View: Bearish on US$INR|
|Sell US$ in the range of 70.18 -70.22||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 69.95 /69.85||Stop Loss: 70.36|
|S1/ S2: 70.05 / 69.85||R1/R2:70.30 /70.45|
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