ICICI Direct expects USDINR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee ended on a weaker note on Monday tracking fragile risk sentiments following the US President’s tariff threat on Chinese imports. Overall, the rupee is likely to trade in a range ahead of the general election outcome as well as steady oil prices • The dollar index was almost unchanged in the previous session. The US$ move remains anchored to the Fed’s stance on US interest rate hike trajectory. The Euro continues to hover around key levels of 1.12. Reducing US interest rate cut probabilities is supporting the US$. A move in Chinese Yuan remains key for EM currencies in the backdrop of escalation of tariff concerns.
Government bonds remained unchanged in yesterday’s session. Overall, it is expected to trade in a range in the backdrop of cool-off in rising oil prices as well as outflows seen in domestic debt markets • US treasury yields declined yesterday as investors were spooked by the US President’s announcement to increase the rate of tariffs on Chinese imports.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee May contract on the NSE was at 69.59 in the previous session. May contract open interest declined 2.28% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
|US$INR May futures contract (NSE)||View: Bearish on US$INR|
|Sell US$ in the range of 69.65 -69.71||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 69.40 /69.30||Stop Loss: 69.84|
|S1/ S2: 69.45 / 69.20||R1/R2:69.75 /69.95|
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