ICICI Direct expects US$INR to meet resistance at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINRSpot Currency
The rupee was little changed for the week against the US$ after two weekly losses, as a corresponding weekly gain in the dollar index on upbeat U.S. data offset gains from the ruling Party’s victory in state polls and waning fears of a global trade war • The US $ declined against majors post US February employment data .Non farm payrolls were sharply higher at 313000 rolls, however unexpected declined in hourly wages growth rate took its toll on US $ . Wage growth rate declined sharply to 2 .6 % from 2. 9 % seen in January. This could lead to some gains in emerging currencies as well some majors.Benchmark yield
Sovereign bond rose for the first time in four weeks, as hopes of inflation slowing in February and banking system liquidity being comfortable towards the fiscal year end aided sentiment. • US 10 - year yields ended rose to 2 . 89 % on Friday as traders continue to remain bearish on debt ahead of March FOMC monetary policy meeting wherein a 0.25 % rate hike is expected.Currency futures on NSE The near month dollar - rupee March contract on the NSE was at 65.30. The March contract open interest increased 0.78 % from the previous day • We expect the US$INR to meet resistance at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
|US$INR March futures contract (NSE)||View: Bearish on US$INR|
|Sell US$INR in the range of 65.12 - 65.18||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: : 64.95 / 64.85||Stop Loss: 65.30|
|S 1/ S 2: 65.00 / 64.85||R 1/R 2:65.20 /65.30|