ICICI Direct expects USDINR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINRSpot Currency
The rupee fell against the US $ on the back of concerns over rising crude oil prices as well as the US President’s plan to impose tariff to counter rising trade deficit with major trading partners • The US $ posted a mild recovery against majors even as US equities ended sharply lower . A hawkish Fed as well as tariff rhetoric continued to puzzle investors while safe haven currency like JPY gained mildly . As expected, the US $ has some near term supports at 88 . 0 level while strength in the Euro and British Pound undermines US rate hike prospects.Benchmark yield
Sovereign bond yields declined sharply as the central government intends to lower its quantum of bond buying in the first half of FY 19 owing to higher yields, which reduced concerns on a demand - supply mismatch • US 10 - year yields also fell sharply to 2 . 78 % amid rising concerns over the US President’s plan to impose tariffs that could impact the global growth rate if US’ major trading partners also retaliate.Currency futures on NSE The near - month dollar - rupee April contract on the NSE was at 65 . 13 . The April contract open interest increased 2 . 42 % from the previous day • We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels . Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions.
|US$INR April futures contract (NSE)||View: Bearish on US$INR|
|Sell US$INR in the range of 65.10 - 65.16||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 64.90 / 64.84||Stop Loss: 65.28|
|S 1/ S 2: 65.05 / 64.90||R 1/R 2:65.20 /65.30|