India Cements (ICEM), following the recent change in management (the first quarter after UTCEM took control), has reported an improved performance in 4QFY25. It has reported an EBITDA of INR5m (vs. an estimate of an operating loss of INR1.2b) in 4QFY25. Sales volume grew ~8% YoY to 2.6mt (~12 above our est.). Net loss stood at INR736m (estimated loss of INR1.1b) vs. a loss of INR435m in 4QFY25. The company’s capacity utilization stood at ~73% in 4QFY25 vs. ~61%/59% in 4QFY24/3QFY25. ICEM achieved an EBITDA break-even in the first quarter after the takeover. UTCEM’s management has indicated that with the price improvement in the south region in Apr’25, ICEM’s performance will further improve. It aims to achieve an EBITDA/t of INR500/INR700/INR1,000+ by FY26E/FY27E/FY28E.
OutlookWe broadly retain our EBITDA estimates for FY26/FY27. We value ICEM at an EV/t of USD70 to arrive at our TP of INR240. Maintain Sell.
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