Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) reported higher than expected Q4 results with EBITDA of Rs48bn (+122% QoQ; PLe: Rs37bn) and PAT of Rs28.4bn (+5.4x QoQ; PLe: Rs13.4bn). On the refining front, GRM came in weaker due to lower distillate yield of 71.7% in Q4. However, gross marketing margins(GMM) came in above estimates at Rs 4.8/ltr. HPCL announced a bonus of 1:2 (one bonus for every 2 shares held) and a final dividend of Rs16.5/share. The stock currently trades at 1.2x FY26 P/BV.
Outlook
Going ahead, factoring in the weak demand prospects in the long run and inability to pass on rise in fuel cost we build in a GRM of US$6/bbl and GMM of Rs4.5/ltr for FY25/26E Downgrade from ‘Reduce’ to ‘Sell’ rating with a TP of Rs420 based on 1x FY26 P/BV.
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