CD Equisearch recommended reduce rating on Vinati Organics with a target price of Rs 1072 in its research report dated September 28, 2020.
CD Equisearch's research report on Vinati Organics
According to latest estimates by Market Research Future published in September ‘20, the demand for ATBS is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12% from 2020-2025. The critical demand-side drivers identified for ATBS market include its increasing use as water treatment chemicals, textile auxiliaries, paints & coatings and oilfield chemicals. Among these end-use applications, the expanding use of ATBS in water treatment is anticipated to have a considerable impact on the market growth for ATBS globally. With growing industrialization, the need for zero liquid discharge is increasing which has led to the adoption of reverse osmosis (RO) membranes and other processes to enable plants to reuse and recycle water. This is expected to lead to the increased use in water treatment plants, thus growing the demand for ATBS. Stress in the overall economic environment seemingly had little impact on VOL’s expansion plans, as it continues to invest in expanding capacities and adding new products. For FY21, it has set aside Rs. 150 cr for capacity expansion of PTBBA plant and setting up facilities for four new specialty chemicals having diversified applications ranging from agrochemicals, dyes to plastic additives etc – these will be completed by the end of this fiscal having revenue potential of Rs. 200-240 cr at current prices.
On balance, we advice reduce rating on the stock with a target of Rs 1072 (previous target: Rs 832) based on 32x FY22e earnings over a period of 9-12 months; the current valuation discounts FY20’s free cash flows at a perpetual growth rate of 7.9%; no small by any stretch of imagination.
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