Hold Petronet LNG; target of Rs 290: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Petronet LNG

Despite slight sequential improvement in total volumes, standalone EBITDA came in 31.5% lower than our estimates at Rs11.2bn (Ple: Rs16.3bn, BBGe Rs12.3bn, -6.9% YoY & -3.7% QoQ). The decline was largely due to impairment charge of Rs1.6bn which included the waiver of Use or Pay (UoP) dues of Rs0.29bn and Rs1.1bn increase in other expenses due to lease accounting impact. As a result, PAT came in at Rs8.1bn, -4.9% YoY and -5.3% QoQ (Rs8.5bn in Q2FY25 and Q1FY26 respectively). In H1FY26, EBITDA and PAT declined - 17.6%/-16.7% YoY to Rs22.8bn and Rs16.6bn. Capex in H1FY26 stood at Rs5.3bn out of the total planned Rs50bn for FY26. A significant portion of the remaining spend in H2FY26 is expected to be ROCE dilutive in the near term.

Outlook

Management remains confident of recovering the UoP dues; however, we remain cautious on the possibility of any further waiver of such dues. Maintain “Hold” with a target price of Rs290 based on 9x FY27/FY28E EPS.