ICICI Direct recommended hold rating on Bharat Forge with a target price of Rs 430 in its research report dated August 14, 2019.
ICICI Direct's research report on Bharat Forge
Bharat Forge reported weak numbers in Q1FY20. Standalone revenues came in at Rs 1,347 crore, down 8.6% YoY (domestic revenues down 7.4% YoY and export revenues down 10.8% YoY), tracking 8.9% drop in total shipment tonnage to 60,874 MT. Standalone EBITDA stood at Rs 350 crore, down 17.2% YoY, with attendant EBITDA margins at 26.0% (down sharply by 504 bps QoQ). Margins were hurt by rise in employee costs and other expenses as a percentage of sales. Consequently, reported standalone PAT came in at Rs 174 crore, down 23.7% YoY.
However, we continue to derive comfort from the company’s healthy return ratio profile (RoCE 17.0%), ~7% FCF yield (FY20-21E) and limited leverage on balance sheet. Valuing the stock at 20x FY21E EPS of Rs 21.5, we arrive at a target price of Rs 430 and downgrade the stock to HOLD.
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