ICICI Direct expects USDINR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee ended the previous session with sharp losses, depreciating almost 62 paise, spooked by a likeliness of lower domestic growth as well as concerns over a trade rift. It is likely to open slightly changed while appreciation would be limited even as domestic inflation for October has jumped to 4.62%, highest since June 2018 • The US$ index closed slightly higher in the previous session amid profit booking in majors as well as fragile risk sentiment. EM currencies as well as major currencies have witnessed some profit booking in the last few session since the US President threatened to impose massive tariffs if China, US fail to pass phase one of trade deal. CNY depreciated to 7.02 in last few session from lows of 6.98.
Domestic benchmark 10-year yields ended lower at 6.53% in the previous session. Growing worries over domestic growth as well as a jump in inflation is likely to put pressure on debt • The US 10-year benchmark yields ended further lower at 1.89%. Risk sentiments improved supported by overall strength in US equities while hardening yields could be a signal that the US economy is relatively preforming well.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee November contract on the NSE was at 72.16 in the previous session. Open interest declined 6.02% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
|US$INR November futures contract (NSE)||View: Bullish on US$INR|
|Buy US$ in the range of 72.06 -72.10||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 72.40 / 72.50||Stop Loss: 71.90|
|S1/ S2: 72.05 / 71.90||R1/R2:72.30 / 72.45|