ICICI Direct expects USDINR to find support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee sustained sharp losses in the previous session and ended lower by 24 paise vs. the US$. Concerns over the domestic slowdown ahead of GDP data today has spooked the rupee. India’s FY20 Q2 GDP is likely to dip below 5%. Lower-than-expected data could put further pressure on the rupee • The US$ index ended unchanged due to muted moves amid Thanksgiving Holidays in the US. Overall, most of the major as well as EM currencies are hovering in a range due to absence of any major trigger as well as lack of clarity on progress over US-China phase one of trade deal. Any adverse outcome could spook EM currencies including the rupee.
Domestic benchmark 10-year yields ended a bit lower at 6.46% in the previous session. Growing worries over domestic growth as well as hardening US yields could contain a sharp appreciation in domestic debt • US 10-year benchmark yields were unchanged at 1.77%. Investors are likely to track the upcoming US November employment data as well as direction of US-China trade talks.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee December contract on the NSE was at 71.80 in the previous session. Open interest increased 4.22% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
|US$INR December futures contract (NSE)||View: Bullish on US$INR|
|Buy US$ in the range of 71.68 -71.72||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 71.95 / 72.05||Stop Loss: 71.53|
|S1/ S2: 71.70 / 71.65||R1/R2:72.0 / 72.15|